October 3, 2007
SPRINGFIELD "QUAGMIRE" NOT STIRRING VOTER ANGER

ANALYSIS & OPINION BY RUSS STEWART

As he travels throughout his district on the Northwest Side, Republican state Representative Mike McAuliffe is both surprised and perplexed.

Voters "don't seem to be concerned, don't seem to be angry," said McAuliffe, referring to the persistent squabbling between Democratic Governor Rod Blagojevich and Democratic House Speaker Mike Madigan and the resultant lack of accomplishment in Springfield

On unresolved issues that affect people both personally and financially, such as the stalled electricity rate relief rebates, the property tax cap extension, CTA and RTA funding, and money for capital improvements of area streets, "people aren't talking," McAuliffe said.

Perhaps it's a "quagmire mentality," engendered by the situation in Iraq. Perhaps it's disgust over the ludicrous spectacle of a state government wholly controlled by the Democrats and wholly incapable of working toward a common agenda. Or perhaps it's just weary acceptance of the norm, namely, that politicians' preoccupation with self-preservation and the acquisition of power only rarely benefits the citizenry.

Whatever the malaise, this much is clear: (1) The Republicans are not benefiting from the Democrats' failures. (2) Madigan's grip on the House, where Democrats have a 66-52 majority, is unassailable. (3) Democrats are likely to make a net gain of two to five seats in the 2008 election, putting them in reach of a 71-seat "super majority" which can override a gubernatorial veto. (4) The squabbling and lack of productivity -- or quagmire -- will continue through the 2010 Democratic primary for governor, in which Madigan's daughter, state Attorney General Lisa Madigan, will challenge Blagojevich.

A Madigan super majority in the 2009-10 session would make the Republicans irrelevant, but, according to McAuliffe, it also would make Madigan's life miserable. The House "would be total chaos," he said, adding that House Democrats would have a magnified sense of their importance and would make exorbitant demands for projects and funding in their districts. If denied by Madigan, a member could refuse to vote to override a governor's veto.

"Madigan controls the House well with less than a super majority," said McAuliffe. "He will lose control with a super majority."

However, as 2008 approaches, a super majority looks unlikely. Here's an overview of key House races:

20th District (Northwest Side: 41st, 36th wards and Norridge and Harwood Heights): McAuliffe, first elected in 1996, is the only Chicago Republican representative. He defeated Democrat Mark Dobrzycki, a Harwood Heights trustee, in 2006 by 18,206-11,930, with 60.4 percent of the vote. Dobrzycki is poised to run again in 2008. McAuliffe beat fellow incumbents Bob Bugielski and Ralph Capparelli, both Democrats, in 2002 and 2004, respectively, in contests occasioned by redistricting. The outlook: Safe for McAuliffe.

17th District (North Shore: Glenview and parts of Skokie, Wilmette, Northfield, Morton Grove and Northbrook): Incumbent Republican Beth Coulson is a fiscal conservative and a social liberal (favoring gun control, abortion rights and gay rights). She's a good fit for the district.

Coulson won by 666 votes in 2002, upped that to 4,107 votes in 2004, and won by 7,101 votes in 2006. Her 2008 foe will be Daniel Biss. The district went 58.8 percent for John Kerry in 2004 and 59.4 percent for Al Gore in 2000. Coulson is popular. The outlook: Having beaten liberal Skokie women in 2004 and 2006, Coulson will easily dispatch Biss in 2008, but when she retires, the district will go Democratic.

40th District (Northwest Side: Argyle to Belmont, between Damen and Laramie): Democrat Rich Bradley has held this seat since 1996, although it has a growing Hispanic population (47 percent in the 2000 census) but not yet a Hispanic voting majority. Bradley wants one more term to max out his state pension, but Alderman Dick Mell's daughter Deborah, who is the sister of the governor's wife, wants the seat, and she won't wait until 2010. So Bradley apparently is running for state senator in the 2008 primary against incumbent Iris Martinez (D-20), who has alienated the Hispanic Democratic Organization. The outlook: Deborah Mell will be the next state rep.

65th District (Des Plaines, Park Ridge): Incumbent Republican Rosemary Mulligan, first elected in 1992, is strongly pro-choice and is strongly reviled by conservative Republicans in the district, but she, like Coulson, is a good fit for her district, which went for Bush in 2000 (51 percent) and Kerry in 2004 (50.1 percent).

Mulligan has been challenged by both conservative and liberal Democrats, and she has won easily. She was unopposed in 2006, got 65.9 percent of the vote in 2004, and got 60.7 percent in 2002. Her 2008 foe is attorney Aurora Abella-Austriaco, who will spend heavily to win. The outlook: Safe for Mulligan.

107th District (Southern Illinois: Salem, Mount Vernon): Incumbent Democrat Kurt Granberg, first elected in 1986, is toast. He won by just 126 votes over Republican John Cavaletto in 2006, and he is expected to retire in 2008. The outlook: Cavaletto will win the seat.

104th District (Danville, Rantoul): Incumbent Republican Bill Black, first elected in 1986, is a political institution in the area, which includes the Democratic-trending suburbs around Champaign-Urbana. Kerry won the district in 2004 with 52.9 percent of the vote, but Bush won it in 2000 with 51.8 percent. Black wants to retire, and he wants a successor from Vermillion County, but nobody's stepped forward. The outlook: If Black runs again, he'll win, but if he retires, Democrat Todd Lee, a former Vermillion county commissioner, could win the seat.

56th District (Schaumburg, Roselle, parts of Palatine and Hanover Park): Incumbent Paul Froelich, first elected in 2002, is a party switcher and the Republicans' number one target in 2008. Froelich stunned both Springfield and his district, where he was the Schaumburg Township Republican committeeman and a champion of social conservative issues, when he defected last summer. Republicans Anita Forte-Scott and Aaron Muller are running in the primary. The outlook: Toss-up.

92nd District (Peoria suburbs): Incumbent Republican Aaron Schock is the boy wonder of Springfield. He was a member of the Peoria Board of Education when he won the House seat at age 23 in 2004. He's now running for congressman in the 18th District.  Either Al Mayer or Jimmy Dillon, both Democratic county commissioners, will run. The Republican is likely to be Jehan Gordon. The outlook: Democratic takeover.

44th District (Streamwood, Hoffman Estates): Longtime Republican incumbent (1985 to 2006) Terry Park lost his bid for re-election in 2006 by 915 votes to Republican-turned-Democrat Fred Crespo, a township official. Crespo had tired of waiting for Parke to retire, so he switched parties. The outlook: Crespo is safe in 2008.

43rd District (Elgin, Carpentersville): Incumbent Republican Ruth Munson has not solidified her base in this district, which has a growing Hispanic population. She was appointed in 2002, and she won by 387 votes in 2004 and by 1,137 votes in 2006. Democrats expect to beat her in 2008.

My prediction: Democrats will make a net gain of three seats, giving them a 69-51 majority. But Republicans were down 72-46 after the 1990 election, so it could be worse.

Included in the adjoining vote chart of area legislators are McAuliffe, Mulligan, Bradley and Coulson, as well as Democrats Joe Lyons, John Fritchey and John D'Amico of Chicago and Lou Lang of Skokie and Republican Skip Saviano of Elmwood Park.