August 22, 2007
OBAMA'S COATTAILS MAY PROPEL BROOKIN'S WIN

ANALYSIS & OPINION BY RUSS STEWART

Those who fail to learn the lessons of history are doomed to repeat the mistakes of the past. Alderman Howard Brookins (21st), a black Democrat from the West Side, is running for Cook County state's attorney in 2008 and is counting on a multiplicity of white opponents to fail and doom themselves.

Brookins also is counting on U.S. Senator Barack Obama's presidential bid to boost black turnout, even though he has yet to endorse him.

The historical lesson is this: In Democratic countywide primaries, a credible black candidate wins when two or more white candidates divide the non-minority vote. That happened in 1992, 1994, 2000 and 2004. It could be deja vu in 2008, as numerous white politicians have indicated an interest in replacing retiring incumbent Dick Devine.

Announced are Cook County Commissioner Larry Suffredin of Evanston and Northwest Side Alderman Tom Allen (38th). Exploring the race are county Commissioner Mike Quigley of Chicago and two top prosecutors in Devine's office, Bob Milan and Anita Alvarez. Allen will be the slated party candidate. Suffredin will position himself as the "reform" candidate, as would Quigley if he runs. If both run, dividing the white liberal, independent vote, then both lose.

Tommy Brewer, a black former FBI agent and state official, also has announced, but he is inconsequential. He has lost primaries for county sheriff and state's attorney. More formidable would be Board of Review Commissioner Larry Rogers Jr. of Chicago, who has $129,000 in his campaign account. But Rogers' term expires in 2008, and he would have to give up his post to run for state's attorney. By competing with Brookins for the black vote and dividing it, Rogers' candidacy would ensure Allen's victory.

Rogers is looking toward a 2011 mayoral bid. Expect him to keep stockpiling campaign cash and run for re-election. If Brookins wins Devine's job, he would be an even more formidable candidate for mayor.

Eagerly awaiting the outcome of the Democrats' jousting is Republican county Commissioner Tony Peraica, who has announced for state's attorney. Peraica ran as the "reform" candidate for Cook County Board president in 2006, losing to Democrat Todd Stroger by 94,457 votes, getting 46.3 percent of the vote.

"There is one-party rule (in Cook County)," Peraica said. "There is unbelievable corruption. There are no checks and balances. The incumbent is a caretaker who takes orders from the mayor. It is time for a change."

The political consensus is that Peraica would have a chance against a black Democrat but that he'd lose against a white Democrat. But Peraica's real goal is a second run for county board president in 2010, and a 2008 bid keeps his name before the public.

Here's a look at past primary outcomes:

1992: Carol Moseley Braun, the Cook County recorder of deeds, ran for U.S. senator and capitalized on both a gender and racial vote. In the "Year of the Woman," white suburban females flocked to her, and she got near-unanimous black support. Incumbent Alan Dixon faced both Braun and independent Al Hofeld. Democratic turnout in Cook County was 864,193, and Braun got 409,574 votes (47.4 percent of the total). Braun had 187,830 votes in the city black wards, 40,550 votes in the north Lakefront wards and 110,910 votes in the suburbs.

Braun beat the combined Dixon-Hofeld vote by 298,664-284,373 in Chicago, but she lost the suburbs by 170,246-110,910. That means that had Hofeld not run, Braun might have lost. But the key was her huge vote in the predominantly black wards and townships.

1994: County board president Dick Phelan ran for governor, and the contest for his succession included black county Commissioner John Stroger, and two white candidates, Clerk of Court Aurie Pucinski and county Commissioner Maria Pappas. The "Daley Machine" backed Stroger, pushing his vote in predominantly white wards. Pappas was strong on the Lakefront, and Pucinski was strong in the white ethnic wards, but they divided the white, the liberal independent and the anti-Daley votes.

In a turnout of 626,457, Stroger got 148,336 votes in the Chicago black wards, about a quarter of the votes in the white wards, and a third of the suburban vote (primarily from black townships). His 295,358 countywide votes (47.1 percent of the total) would have been insufficient had he faced just one white opponent.

2000: The slated candidate was Northwest Side Alderman Pat Levar (45th), but he faced opposition from one black candidate, CTA official Dorothy Brown, and two white candidates, Metropolitan Water Reclamation District Commissioner Patty Young and Alderman Joe Moore (49th). The result was predictable: In a turnout of 447,446, Brown finished first with 216,631 votes (48.4 percent of the total), to 123,309 for Levar, 56,841 for Young and 50,665 for Moore. The vote of the three white candidates votes exceeded Brown's vote by 230,815-216,831. Brown won the predominantly black wards and townships over Levar by 135,904-23,463 -- a 6-l margin -- and had 172,892 votes in Chicago, to Levar's 99,952.

Governor: Roland Burris, who was the state comptroller from 1983 to 1990 and the state attorney general through 1994, lost Democratic primary bids for governor in 1994, 1998 and 2002. In the three contests, Burris finished first in Cook County only once, in 1998, and he never won a majority.

In 1994, in a field including Dawn Clark Netsch, Phelan and two other white candidates, Burris got 401,142 votes statewide, losing to Netsch by 86,222 votes. Netsch won Cook County by 282,550-276,804 in a turnout of 686,693, but Burris won Chicago 223,157-170,387, taking the predominantly black wards by huge margins.

In 1998 Burris got 234,222 votes in Cook County (42.4 percent of the total), to 114,227 for Glenn Poshard, 160,148 for John Schmidt and 43,024 for others.

In 2002, against Rod Blagojevich and Paul Vallas, Burris got 265,868 votes in Cook County (with 172,763 in the black wards and 44,500 in the black townships), to 268,514 for Vallas and 213,028 for Blagojevich. This time, Burris got only 35.6 percent of the vote. In his three races, Burris won Cook County only in 1998.

2004: Obama was in the right place at the right time. It also helped that the frontrunner for the Democrats' U.S. Senate nomination, Blair Hull, imploded after a domestic violence allegation was publicized. Hull spent $22 million on his bid.

In a seven-candidate race, with two black candidates (Obama and Joyce Washington), four white candidates and one Hispanic candidate, Obama finished first with 52.8 percent of the vote. He was propelled by his stunning margin in Cook County, where he amassed 464,917 votes (64.4 percent), to a combined 256,827 for his foes, in a turnout of 721,744. Obama got 301,199 votes in Chicago, with 195,669 in the predominantly black wards; he got 163,718 votes in the suburbs, with 65,293 in the black townships.

2006: Incumbent county board president John Stroger, a key Daley ally, was besieged by a federal investigation of county hiring, and Forrest Claypool and Mike Quigley, both white county commissioners, sought to run. Quigley withdrew and backed Claypool, and an upset was imminent. But Stroger had a stroke just before the primary. Claypool lost by 41,952 votes, getting 46.6 percent of the vote, in a turnout of 595,316. Stroger won Chicago with 61.8 percent of the vote, getting 232,067 votes, with 154,354 from the black wards; he lost the suburbs, getting 39.3 percent of the vote.

But for Stroger's stroke and the subsequent sympathy vote, Claypool would have won.

The bottom line: In three of the last four presidential year primaries - 1992, 2000 and 2004 - Democratic turnout averaged about 675,000. In those years, turnout in Chicago's black-majority wards averaged 175,000 and turnout in the five largest black-majority suburban townships averaged 55,000.

That means that Brookins, if he is the sole black contender and if he solidifies his base, goes into the primary with 230,000 votes, or about 34 percent of the total. He surely can pick up another 70,000 votes along the Lakefront, in Evanston and Oak Park, and scattered elsewhere, getting him to 300,000. That's enough to win, provided that he (1) closely identifies himself with Obama and clutches onto his ample coattails, and (2) clearly identifies himself as a "reformer."

"I will investigate corruption in city and county government," Brookins pledged. "I will not be soft on crime." The rap on Devine was that he used his office's power to protect Rich Daley by not investigating him.

Brookins' resume is broad but thin. He has been an alderman since 2003, and he has supported the mayor on economic development issues, including the "big box" prevailing wage. His task is to position himself as a "reasonable reformer," which means persuading voters that he'll root out corruption and persuading Daley that he won't do so with more than minimal vigor. That will take some finesse.

Cook County is about 27 percent black, and blacks occupy the offices of county board president, clerk of court, and recorder. But there is resistance, among the voters and the Daley loyalists, to allowing a black to become sheriff, assessor or state's attorney. Brookins, age 43, is not in the mold of Jesse Jackson or Al Sharpton. He may, as Obama was in 2004, be in the right place at the right time in 2008.