For national Democrats, the formula for capturing the presidency in 2008 is reminiscent of Albert Einstein's, but far less complex: EC plus GROB plus NTP equals an overwhelming Democratic victory.

To translate: Electoral College plus pervasive Get Rid Of Bush sentiment plus No Third Party, coupled with a reasonably presentable Democratic nominee, is a win.

The presidential election is still 18 months away, candidate debates are under way, and fund-raising is proceeding at a record-breaking pace, yet most Americans are ignoring the spectacle. Further, with states "frontloading" their presidential primaries or caucuses to benefit the local economy or a particular candidate, the major parties' nominees will be apparent by next March. Those displeased, be they anti-Iraq War liberals or social conservatives, will have adequate time to field a third-party candidate.

Here's an early analysis:

In a two-party race, it's all about the Electoral College. George Bush got 50,456,169 popular votes (47.8 percent of the total) in 2000, to Al Gore's 50,996,116 (48.4 percent), losing by 539,940 votes. But Bush carried 29 states and amassed 271 electoral votes, one more than a majority.

In 2004 Bush's vote grew to 62,040,060 (50.7 percent of the votes cast), to John Kerry's 59,028,109 (48.3 percent). That was 11,584,437 more votes for the president and 8,031,993 more votes for the Democrat. Bush carried 30 states and got 286 electoral votes. Two 2000 Gore states, New Mexico and Iowa, switched to Bush in 2004, while one 2000 Bush state, New Hampshire, shifted to Kerry.

With 535 electoral votes, the winner needs 270. If the Democratic candidate wins one or more 2004 Bush state, such as Ohio (20 electoral votes), New Mexico (5), Colorado (9), Nevada (5), Iowa (7), Virginia (13) or Arizona (10), for a combined switch of 17 electoral votes, the Democrats win.

Going into 2008, and given the president's enormous unpopularity and the unresolved Iraq situation, this much is likely: None of the 2000 Gore or 2004 Kerry states are going to support a Republican in 2008, while up to a dozen Bush states could flip to a Democrat.

Part of the appeal of former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani is that he can attract Democratic votes in the northeast and in California. But the Democrats have won overwhelmingly in California (55 electoral votes), New York (31), Illinois (21), Michigan (17), Pennsylvania (21), New Jersey (15) and Massachusetts (12) in the past four elections, and those states total 172 electoral votes. Add to that another 13 smaller states which habitually vote Democratic, and the 2008 nominee starts out with a base of 252 electoral votes.

The Republicans can count on Texas (34 electoral votes), Florida (27), North Carolina (15) and Virginia (13). Add to that another 20 smaller states with 11 or fewer electoral votes, and the Republicans' base is about 254 electoral votes.

So all of 2008's sound and fury involves these states:

Ohio (20 votes): Bush won in 2000 by 165,019 votes and in 2004 by 118,599 votes. Scandals tainted the state's Republican governor, a Democrat won the post in 2006 by 899,264 votes, with 60 percent of the votes cast, and a Democrat defeated a two-term Republican senator by 380,675 votes, with 55 percent of the vote. Ohio looks hopeless for the Republicans in 2008.

Colorado (9): Bush won in 2000 by 145,521 votes and in 2004 by 99,523 votes. Until 2004 Republicans held the state's governorship, both U.S. Senate seats and five of seven U.S. House seats, and they controlled the state legislature. After 2006 Democrats had the governorship, control of the legislature, four House seats and one Senate seat, and they likely will win the other Senate seat in 2008. A liberal tide is running. Republicans can kiss off Colorado in 2008.

New Mexico (5): Bush lost in 2000 by 366 votes and won in 2004 by 5,988 votes. Hispanic Democrat Bill Richardson, a former Clinton Administration United Nations ambassador and Department of Energy secretary and a long-shot 2008 presidential candidate, won the governorship in 2002 and was re-elected in 2006 by 176,095 votes, with 68 percent of the vote. Whether or not Richardson is the Democrats' vice-presidential nominee, New Mexico will go Democratic in 2008.

Iowa (7): Bush lost in 2000 by 4,144 votes and won in 2004 by 10,059 votes. Democratic Governor Tom Vilsack retired in 2006 and briefly ran for president. Republican U.S. Representative Jim Nussle was a huge favorite to succeed him, but he lost to Democrat Chet Culver by 101,459 votes. The Iowa caucuses are in January of 2008, and energized anti-Iraq liberals are already organizing.

Iowans are not particularly liberal, but they're ahead of the curve on public opinion, which means Iraq. They backed a Democrat for president in 1988, 1992, 1996 and 2000. They will do likewise in 2008.

Nevada (5): Bush won in 2000 by 21,597 votes and in 2004 by 21,500 votes. The state is a microcosm of America, evenly balanced between the parties, and with a new population influx of 1,000 a day. A Republican won the governorship in 2006 by fewer than 15,000 votes, and Democrats almost won two Republican U.S. House seats. If a Democrat wins Nevada, a Democrat wins the presidency.

Arizona (10): Bush won in 2000 by 96,311 votes and upped that in 2004 to 210,770 votes. If Arizona Senator John McCain is the Republican nominee, he'll win his home state easily, but a Democrat was re-elected as governor in 2006 by 266,339 votes (with 63 percent of the total), and Democrats picked up two Republican-held U.S. House seats. Arizona is no longer a Republican bastion.

Virginia (13): Bush won in 2000 by 220,200 votes and in 2004 by 262,217. The state has voted Republican in the last 10 presidential elections, since 1968, and Republicans have an 8-3 majority in the congressional delegation. But a Democrat won the governorship in 2001 and 2005, and Democrat Jim Webb upset Republican Senator George Allen, an announced 2008 presidential candidate, in 2006 by 5,719 votes. Northern Virginia's suburbs, around Washington, D.C., are increasingly liberal, and they provided Webb's victory margin. Former Democratic governor Mark Warner is angling to run for vice president on Hillary Clinton's ticket. Virginia is in play in 2008.

Missouri (11): Bush won by 78,786 votes in 2000 and by 196,542 in 2004. After the 2004 election, Republicans held the governorship, the state legislature, both U.S. Senate seats and five of nine congressional seats. But Republican Senator Jim Talent, who won in 2002 by 21,254 votes, lost in 2006 by 36,737 votes, and Republican Governor Matt Blunt, who is up for re-election in 2008, is not popular. A Democrat could win the state.

Florida (27): Bush won in 2000 by 537 votes, giving him the presidency after protracted legal wrangling, and in 2004 he upped that to a solid 380,978-vote margin. "First Brother" Jeb Bush was elected governor in 1998 by 419,051 votes, with 55 percent of the vote. Despite Democratic allegations that Jeb Bush somehow conspired to steal the 2000 election for president in Florida, he was re-elected by 655,418 votes, with 56 percent of the votes cast, in 2002. In 2006 his anointed successor, Charlie Crist, won by 327,971 votes, with 52 percent of the votes cast, but Democrats gained two Republican U.S. House seats. In 2008 the Republicans' margin in Florida could be tight, but not as close as in 2000.

The bottom line: One to five states will elect the president in 2008. If Democrats win Ohio, they're in. If Democrats win Colorado, New Mexico and Iowa, they're in. If Arizona and Nevada go Democratic, a landslide is in the making.

But Republicans have cause for optimism in 2008, even if U.S. troops are still in Iraq. And that is a third-party presidential contender. If the anti-Bush, anti-Republican, anti-Iraq vote is fractionalized, a Republican could win, much as Richard Nixon won in 1968 with just 43 percent of the vote.

The arithmetic regarding 2008 is simple: First, discontent with Bush's Administration and Iraq policies have cost his party 10 percent of the vote. That lowers the Republican base to 40 percent. Second, evangelical Christians comprise about a quarter of the Republicans, and they will be appalled if the 2008 nominee is Giuliani, who supports abortion rights, gun control and gay rights. They may not vote.

And third, about half of the Democrats want a nominee who will bring the troops home immediately. They'll get that in John Edwards, but not in Clinton or Barack Obama.

Billionaire New York Mayor Mike Bloomberg is a nominal Republican, and he easily could self-fund a "reform" presidential bid, akin to Ross Perot's in 1992. Nebraska Republican Senator Chuck Hagel, who wants an Iraq withdrawal timetable, is inching toward a run. Either could draw a sizable vote. Independent John Anderson got 5,719,437 votes in 1980 (6.7 percent of the total), Perot got 19,741,065 votes in 1992 (19 percent), and Ralph Nader got 2,834,410 votes (2.7 percent) in 2000.

The bottom line: A liberal "reform" or anti-Iraq contender potentially drains votes from the Democratic nominee. In that situation, the Democrat has to move left or lose. Like Nixon in 1968, a Republican could win in 2008 with just over 40 percent of the vote.