March 28, 2007
"COLOR," MONEY KEY TO 49TH, 50TH WARD RUNOFFS
In Chicago's West Rogers Park 50th Ward, the operative word in the April 17 aldermanic runoff is "people of color." In Chicago's Rogers Park 49th Ward, the operative word is "color of money." Ald. Berny Stone (50th), fondly known as the Energizer Berny, because he keeps going and going, is facing a tough challenge from Naisy Dolar, a Filipino-American. Stone has been alderman since 1973. Of the ward's voters, 30% are Jews, 20% are non-Jewish whites, and 50% are "people of color": Assyrians, Asian Indians, Pakistanis, Koreans, Thai, Filipinos, Japanese, Chinese, Vietnamese. "She's (Dolar) playing the racial card," said Stone. "There's more Jews than Filipinos." Stone claims that he's got more "people of color" backing him than her. Ald. Joe Moore (49th), the scourge of fois gras, is known as "Mighty Joe Moore." Despite his infatuation with liberal issues, Moore raises tons of money, a hefty portion from developers and real estate interests. Over 6,000 rental units in the ward have been converted to condos. Moore raised $507,213 since 1/1/05. Opponent Don Gordon is blasting Moore for "being in the pocket of developers." Full Article...
March 21, 2007
ATTRITION RATE HIGH FOR BLACK ALDERMEN
In Chicago's 20 black-majority wards, it's deja vu all over. In 1983, 6 of 16 incumbent aldermen were defeated. As many as seven of 19 may lose in 2007. Ready to walk the proverbial plank are Aldermen Madeline Haithcock (2nd), Dorothy Tillman (3rd), Shirley Coleman (16th) and Michael Chandler (24th). Howard Brookins (21st) is in a tough race. Already bounced are Darcel Beavers (7th) and Arenda Troutman (20th). Aldermanic turnover is twice as high in black wards as in white wards. As of 2007, the 19 black aldermen had served a total of 196 years, or 49 terms, compared to 392 years, and 98 terms, for the 21 white aldermen. In the April 17 runoff, remember the Iron Runoff Rule: Any incumbent that finishes below 50% is in jeopardy, but those below 40% are toast. In the 70 runoffs since 1983, 50 involved an incumbent, and the incumbent won 29 (58%). Haithcock, Coleman and Chandler were below 40%. Haithcock will be replaced by a white. Full Article...
March 14, 2007
AREA ALDERMEN SUFFER DIMINISHED 2007 SUPPORT
Call it a meltdown. Of the 12 aldermen from Chicago's Northwest Side, 11 received fewer votes on Feb. 27, 2007 than they did in 2003. Their declines ranged from 5 to 25%. Of the 12, three are in runoffs on April 17. Since each ward has 66,000 people, and anywhere from 25,000 to 35,000 registered voters, any alderman who wins with less than 10,000 votes cannot take comfort. In fact, Aldermen Reboyras and Colon barely topped 3,000. Voter fatigue and performance dissatisfaction invariably takes a toll on any alderman, who is a glorified housekeeper. Had there been an anti-Daley "reform" candidate for mayor, the Northwest Side Twelve -- all Daley loyalists -- would have fared worse. In the 45th Ward, Pat Levar won a sixth term, spending over $200,000, got 56%, but had 1,287 votes less than in 2003. In the 41st Ward, Brian Doherty trounced two nobodies with 72%. In the 36th Ward, Bill Banks is still the boss, winning with 76%. In the 35th Ward's "Battle of the Turncoats," Rey Colon, an independent-turned-Daleyite was forced into a runoff with ex-Ald. Vilma Colom, a Daleyite-turned-independent, with a third candidate getting 20%. Colon's vote was down by 1,406 votes from 2003, when Daley and the HDO opposed him. This time, they were for Colon. Anti-Daley, liberal whites in the ward are perplexed. Which turncoat do they support in the runoff? A VOTE CHART of Northwest Side ward votes for 2003 and 2007 is attached to this article. Full Article...
March 7, 2007
DALEY'S NEW PROBLEM: "LAME DUCK" STATUS
Chicago Mayor Rich Daley is on a political arc. The question is whether he's approaching a permanent zenith, and is poised to be mayor-for-life; or approaching a nadir, and is serving his last term. Perceptions are critical: If Daley looks like a "lame duck" -- who won't be mayor much longer (due to federal investigations), or who won't run for another term in 2011, then chaos will ensue. The battle for the succession will commence. Daley can take negligible comfort from the 2/27/07 vote totals. His 318,578 was lower than any prior vote, and less than he got in 1983 (343,506). Turnout was dismal: 447,571. In 1987, it was 1.1 million. That's a 650,000 dropoff. But anti-Daley opposition has collapsed. In 1989, Tim Evans got 412,864 votes; in 2007, Daley's two black foes got 128,993. Daley won every black ward. Chicagoans want comfort, continuity and optimism. Daley may be around for the 2016 Olympics, but the new city council will have a hardcore anti-Daley minority of six or seven. A "Daley Vote Chart," detailing past performance and turnout is included in the article. Full Article...
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