February 21, 2007
"GLUTTONOUS" CHCIAGOANS ARE CONTENT WITH DALEY

ANALYSIS & OPINION BY RUSS STEWART

How does one succinctly describe the 2007 Chicago municipal election?

It's a non-event. The challengers to Mayor Rich Daley have run lame and listless campaigns. The cascade of City Hall corruption has temporarily abated. The city's gluttonous citizenry, who ceaselessly demand low crime, decent schools, efficient services, minimal taxes and appreciating property values, are sated.

The Feb. 27 election is a referendum Daley and on his performance over the past 18 years. Chicago works and Chicagoans prosper, and Daley will win re-election with 58 percent of the vote. Fortunately for the mayor, his two foes, Dorothy Brown and Dock Walls, failed to make reform the primary issue and failed to expand their base outside the black community.

Here are my predictions:

Mayor: In any other U.S. city, Daley would be a Rudy Giuliani Republican: conservative on fiscal issues but liberal on social issues. The city budget has grown, but not excessively: It was $2.91 billion in 1989 and $5.7 billion in 2007, an increase of about $160 million annually. Daley supports Wal-Mart, the city's unions generally detest him, and only the Building and Construction Trades Council has endorsed him. Some black politicians rage about police brutality. There have been 42 convictions in the Hired Truck Program scandal, with many more to come. Daley has raised $3.1 million, and he is all over television.

My prediction: 2007 is not 1963, when Chicago voters rebelled against rising property taxes. It is not 1983, when black voters arose and elected Harold Washington. It is not 2003, when few voters gave a damn, and even fewer voted.

Back in 1983, turnout was more than 1.2 million. In 2003 it was 442,000, with Daley getting 347,698 votes (79 percent of the votes cast). 2007 is 1995, when turnout was more than 500,000 and Daley won with 336,183 votes (66 percent). Because of the plethora of aldermanic contests in the 21 predominantly black wards, turnout will spurt, but Daley will get about 20 percent of the black vote. The mayor will finish with 304,000 votes (58 percent of the total), to Brown's 179,000 (34 percent) and Walls' 42,000, in a turnout of 525,000. Daley will get fewer votes than he did in 1995, 1999 and 2003. If he had a credible, well funded "reform" foe this year, he could have lost. And if federal indictments and convictions continue through Daley's next term, he will lose in 2011.

City Clerk: Appointed incumbent Miguel del Valle is perfectly positioned to run for mayor in 2011. He is Puerto Rican, he has a history of alliances with liberal blacks and Hispanics, and he now is a Daley ally. He faces Jose Cerda and Diane Jones. Del Valle will win with a solid 66 percent of the vote.

45th Ward: Alderman Pat Levar, first elected in 1987, is not beloved, and he is beatable. An influx of new residents has transformed Portage Park, Jefferson Park, Forest Glen and Gladstone Park and created an independent, anti-Levar base.

In the past, Levar never had overly credible opponents, with a political base or adequate funding. This year he has three: Terry Boyke, his former aide, Bob Bank, a community activist, and Anna Klocek, who is tapping into the ward's large Polish-American vote and who will attract some support because of her gender.

The recent death of 45th Ward Democratic Committeeman Tom Lyons has motivated the ward's precinct captains, numbering more than 200, to "win one for Tommy." Levar will spend close to $150,000, and he has signs everywhere. But there is discontent with Levar, who won with 65 percent of the vote in 2003, in a turnout of 13,403; he got 8,667 votes, to Daley's 11,352 votes in the ward.

My prediction: Turnout will not exceed 12,000, and Levar's vote will dwindle to about 6,000. Boyke, Bank and Klocek are energizing the anti-Levar vote, with Bank and Klocek blasting Boyke as a turncoat, Boyke ripping Levar as incompetent, and Levar's captains eager to avenge Boyke's defection. In a squeaker, Levar will triumph with 52 percent of the vote, narrowly avoiding a runoff.

50th Ward: Father Time is Alderman Berny Stone's nemesis. Stone, age 79, was first elected in 1973, and he has been re-elected eight times. His West Rogers Park ward is undergoing great demographic change, with an influx of Vietnamese, Korean, Chinese, Japanese, Thai, Pakistani, Indian, Russian Jewish, Assyrian and Muslim immigrants, as well as younger non-Jewish professionals. The conversion of apartments into condominiums is surging. The Jewish vote, Stone's longtime base, is dwindling, and new voters have no reverence for him.

Architect Greg Brewer, one of Stone's three foes, recently sent out a devastating direct mail piece with a picture of a 1973 car, asking the rhetorical question: Isn't it time for a new model? Also running are Naisy Dolar, a Filipina who is appealing to the Asian community, and Salman Aftab, a Muslim. Of the three, Dolar has run the most impressive campaign, but the various ethnic groups are fractious and disunited, while the Jewish vote is still more than 35 percent.

Stone won in 2003 with 5,755 votes in a turnout of 7,558; Daley got 7,061 votes. My prediction: With three foes campaigning vigorously and spending money, Stone's vote will decline to about 3,800 (47 percent) in a turnout of 8,000. Dolar will finish second, causing a runoff. The key is how close. If Stone doubles Dolar's vote, keeping her under 1,900, he'll win the runoff, as the anti-Stone vote will be discouraged. But if she comes in around 2,500 and attracts the Brewer vote, Stone's in trouble. Expect Stone, like Levar, to squeak to another term.

41st Ward: As usual, voters in this Far Northwest Side ward are snoozing through another aldermanic race. Alderman Brian Doherty, the City Council's only Republican who was first elected in 1991, faces a trio of candidates who have run desultory campaigns: Mike Hannon, Andy DeVito and Don Markham. Doherty was re-elected in 2003 with 10,777 votes (73 percent of the votes cast), in a turnout of 14,788; Daley got only 12,129 votes in the ward.

There is no groundswell of fatigue with Doherty. The ward contains hundreds of city police and firefighters and many city workers and union members. Doherty has differed with Daley on budget issues, but the mayor is not working to unseat him. Doherty will again top Daley's vote in the ward, winning with 68 percent of the vote.

32nd Ward: Alderman Ted Matlak looks like this year's "Dead Man Walking." His principal opponent, Scott Waguespack, has made the race a referendum on Matlak in the Wicker Park/Bucktown/South Lakeview ward. Waguespack is blasting Matlak for his poor communication, sneaky spot zoning and lack of ward services. In addition, unlike the situation in the outlying wards, where an anti-Daley posture would be deleterious to his campaign, Waguespack is running as a reformer who pledges not to be a Daley stooge in the City Council. Also running is attorney Catherine Zaryczny.

Once a Polish and Ukrainian ethnic bastion, the ward has exploded with teardowns, $500,000 condominiums, $1 million townhomes and $1.5 million "McMansions." The new residents don't want their alderman to be just a housekeeper; they want an articulate alderman who will give them input on critical ward issues. That means: No Matlak. Terry Gabinski was the ward's alderman from 1968 to 1999, and he still is the Democratic committeeman.

Matlak was first elected in 1999, with 56 percent of the vote, and he was re-elected in 2003 with 74 percent. In both contests, out-of-ward city workers under the supervision of since-convicted city officials Don Tomczak and Dan Katalinic flooded the ward. Not this year. Matlak has few precinct workers. My prediction: In a turnout of 10,500, Waguespack will win with 55 percent of the vote, with Matlak barely cracking 40 percent.

39th Ward: In this Sauganash/Mayfair/Albany Park ward, independent Chris Belz is trying to replicate Waguespack's strategy, running as a "reformer" and castigating "corruption" in City Hall. But Alderman Marge Laurino, who was first elected in 1995, is quite popular, as is Daley. Laurino was unopposed in 2003, and she won with 61 percent of the vote in 1999.

My prediction: Belz works for Dorothy Brown in the Circuit Court clerk's office, but he is not endorsing her for mayor. Daley got 7,229 votes in the ward in 2003, and Laurino got 7,131. In a turnout of just under 7,000, Laurino will win with 65 percent of the vote.

47th Ward: Gene Schulter has been the alderman of this Ravenswood/Lincoln Square ward since 1975, and the ward has been undergoing enormous demographic change. But, unlike in the 50th and 32nd wards, Schulter is secure. He won in 2003 won with 64 percent of the vote, getting 7,714 votes in a turnout of 12,033 and beating a foe backed by then-committeeman Ed Kelly. Schulter became the ward's Democratic committeeman in 2004.

My prediction: Schulter faces funeral home director Marty Cooney, and he will win with 69 percent of the vote.

36th Ward: Bill Banks has been the ward's alderman since 1983, and he had no opposition in 1995, 1999 and 2003. This year, firefighter Nick Sposato is on the ballot. Daley got 9,860 votes in the ward in 2003, and Banks got 10,141. Sposato is running on a platform of "change" on the ward level, but not citywide. My prediction: Banks will win with about 65 percent of the vote.