November 8, 2006
NO CHICAGO RESPITE: NEXT CAMPAIGN BEGINS

ANALYSIS & OPINION BY RUSS STEWART

For Chicagoans, there is no respite. Nov. 7 was either the end of the beginning or the beginning of the end. While the rest of the country can return to normalcy, immune from electioneering for at least a year, Chicago residents must suffer through another 5 months.

The filing deadline for aldermanic and citywide candidates is Dec. 18, and the nonpartisan primary will be held on Feb. 27. In races where no candidate receives 50 percent of the vote, a runoff election will be held on April 3.

Here's an update on key contests:

Mayor: Incumbent Rich Daley, who has served since 1989, will announce his candidacy for re-election in mid-November. Even though 41 people have been convicted in the Hired Truck scandal, with many more to come, Chicagoans seem to have an egregiously high tolerance level. They're convinced that Daley knew about the test rigging, favoritism and kickbacks, but they're also convinced that a Daley-free Chicago would not be a good place to live.

Call Daley the "Mega-Teflon Man," and call his field of foes "The Three Dwarfs." Already in the race are Dock Walls, a onetime aide to Mayor Harold Washington, and Cook County Circuit Court Clerk Dorothy Brown. Still pondering are U.S. Representatives Jesse Jackson Jr. and Luis Gutierrez. All but Gutierrez are black.

The U.S. Attorney's Office recently seized personnel records of 29 current Department of Streets and Sanitation employees, a sign that they're targeting former department commissioner Al Sanchez and former intergovernmental affairs chief Victor Reyes, key leaders of Daley's Hispanic Democratic Organization. If they're indicted, Daley is next.

Of the city's 1,416,101 registered voters, 45 percent are white, 43 percent are black and 12 percent are Hispanic.

Two contradictory perceptions of 2007 prevail. One is that numerous candidates will engender a large voter turnout and that the anti-Daley field will amass more than 50 percent of the vote, prompting an April runoff -- which Daley would lose. The second is that having three black candidates (and one Hispanic candidate) against one white candidate is the same as having one black candidate against one white candidate and that Daley's white-Hispanic coalition guarantees that he'll get more than 50 percent of the vote.

Walls is unknown. Brown has shown no inclination to reach out to white voters. Only Jackson can position himself as a reformer able to win non-black votes, but he has been dawdling for over a year. Jackson was supposed to build a field of anti-Daley "reform" aldermanic candidates, especially in white wards, and he has failed spectacularly. He was supposed to assemble a top-notch "rainbow" ticket for city offices (mayor, clerk and treasurer), and he is still scrounging for a credible Hispanic candidate. County Commissioner Mike Quigley is supposed to run with Jackson as a candidate for city clerk, but Aldermen Ricardo Munoz (22nd) and Billy Ocasio (26th) have spurned Jackson's entreaties to run for treasurer.

To date, there are no Jackson petitions on the street. He can surely get 10,000 signatures by Dec. 18, but he must get his act together soon.

City Clerk: Longtime incumbent (1995 to 2006) Jim Laski was convicted of bribery in the Hired Truck program, and he resigned his $135,545-a-year job in February. But the 2007 contest is a no-contest. On Oct. 5 Daley appointed state Senator Miguel del Valle, a 55-year-old Puerto Rican-born liberal, to the post. Del Valle has been an outspoken foe of Daley's Hispanic Democratic Organization, which puts him in a perfect position for 2007: He's a reformer, which means he can't be isolated as a Daley stooge. The HDO can't oppose him, since Daley supports him and he supports Daley.

Jose Cerda III, Daley's policy advisor, resigned in September to run for clerk, but the del Valle appointment makes his candidacy moot. And if Quigley runs, he will have to direct his attacks at Daley, since del Valle is immune. My prediction: del Valle will win in 2007, unopposed.

City Treasurer: The specter of Miriam Santos, who held the job from 1990 until her federal conviction in 1999 for extortion, mail fraud and wire fraud, hangs over this race. Santos is readying a petition to vacate her plea, claiming that the Daley Administration somehow concealed evidence. Daley appointed Judy Rice, the daughter of former city police superintendent Fred Rice, to succeed Santos in November of 2000.

In 2003 Rice, who is black, was unopposed, and she looked like a cinch to win again in 2007. Santos claims that lobbyists who testified against her were unregistered. In an astute switcheroo, Rice resigned and Stephanie Neely, a black investment banker, was appointed by Daley to replace her -- thereby removing the Santos "issue" from the table. Neely is unsullied by any connection to scandal, and she will win easily.

45th Ward: Is a big field a good field? That's the question Alderman Pat Levar is asking himself. The consensus is that the more candidates who run for alderman, the less likely an incumbent will win 50 percent of the vote. But Levar, who has served since 1987 and who is backed by Democratic Committeeman Tom Lyons' potent organization, has a built-in vote of at least 6,000. He already has 7,000 petition signatures, but that's far fewer than the 12,000 he had in 2003.

Running against Levar are Terry Boyke, his former top aldermanic aide, Bob Bank, former president of the Jefferson Park Neighborhood Association, who got just 20.6 percent of the vote in a race against Lyons for committeeman in 2004, and Anna Klocek, a Forest Glen real estate agent who was active in Pete Conway's 2003 campaign against Levar. A possible candidate is police officer Jose Rivera. Not running are Dave Haynes, the ward's Republican committeeman, Mike Lappe, the 16th District police neighborhood relations officer who withdrew from the 2003 race, Conway, who has moved out of the ward, Dan Schmidt, a longtime Republican activist who Haynes tried to recruit, and George Powers, another 2003 Conway worker.

The early outlook: Hell hath no fury like Levar and Lyons scorned. They are putting out the word that Boyke, a 16-year precinct captain and Levar's aide since 2000, is a turncoat and an ingrate. They want to squash him, lest other precinct workers stray from the fold. Boyke claims that he has amassed more than 4,000 signatures, which is 10 times more than he needs. That should get him on the ballot, but he lacks money and manpower. According to Levar, a strong Daley supporter, no current Democratic captain has defected to Boyke. Give Levar the edge.

41st Ward: Among the ward's Democrats, there is Frank Coconate and there is Ralph Capparelli, and never the twain shall meet.

And incumbent Alderman Brian Doherty, a Republican, is loving it. Doherty has served since 1991, and his ward is very conservative and generally Republican. In addition, the Democratic organization is virtually nonexistent.

"I can't find anybody" to run for alderman, moans Capparelli, the ward's Democratic committeeman, who served as a state representative from 1971 to 2004. "Nobody's asked for my support." Capparelli's legislative campaign committee has more $650,000 on hand, but, said Capparelli, "I won't waste it on somebody who will lose." As for Coconate, "He's not a Democrat," Capparelli said. "He's an opportunist. I will never support him."

Coconate, who heads the Northwest Side Democratic Organization, has long been a critic of Capparelli, and until recently he was aligned with the Jackson campaign. Coconate said that Capparelli is a "do-nothing" committeeman. "He might as well be the Republican committeeman," he said. "He's let the organization dissolve."

Also running are Gloria Sykes, a writer who got 8 percent of the vote in 2003, Mike Marzullo, a Democratic activist who was poised to run for committeeman against Capparelli in 2004, Diane Blaszcyk, co-chairwoman of the Chicago Teachers' Union Political Action Committee, and Andy DiVita, an aviation department worker who Coconate said was put up by his enemies. Doherty is a solid favorite to win.

36th Ward: Alderman Bill Banks has had no opponent for the past three elections. In 2007 he will have at least two: Nicholas Sposato, a Chicago firefighter and community activist who already has obtained 1,500 signatures, and Susan DiLiberto, a local school council member from the Galewood-Montclare area. Banks already has accumulated more than 10,000 signatures. "There's a great deal of discontent" in the 36th Ward, Sposato said. "People want a change." Nevertheless, Banks is a heavy favorite.

39th Ward: A Laurino has been the alderman of the 39th Ward since 1964, and incumbent Marge Laurino is in no jeopardy in 2007. Chris Belz, a systems analyst for the clerk of the Circuit Court, is running. People are "upset over Laurino's neglect, and over lack of ward services," said Belz, who is supporting Dorothy Brown, his boss, for mayor. Belz claims to have 2,200 signatures, and he says that he is the "reform" candidate.

"He is the Dorothy Brown candidate" for alderman, said Democratic Committeeman Randy Barnette, Laurino's husband. "There's absolutely no support for Dorothy Brown in our ward." Laurino will win easily.