November 29, 2006
COOK COUNTY'S MESSAGE: NO NEED FOR REFORM
Todd Stroger, despite being an Amiable Dunce, won. Does that mean Cook County's voters are hopelessly dumb? Or can any Democrat with a pulse win every county race? Those perplexing questions hover over the 11/7/06 election outcome, in which Stroger beat Republican Tony Peraica by 94,457 votes. Stroger, who is black, won the Chicago precincts by 231,893 votes (68.5%), while Peraica won the suburbs by 137,436 votes (60.8%). For any Republican to win, he needs 65% of the suburban vote, and 35% of the Chicago vote. Peraica came agonizingly close, and young Todd was an eminently beatable candidate. "It was an anti-Bush, anti-war, anti-Republican wave," groused Peraica, who blew his one and only chance to be Cook County Board president. If a Republican can't beat the phenomenally flawed Stroger, then who can they beat? Now that's he's the CCB president, Stroger will have four years to entrench himself. If he shows some intelligence, some budgetary restraint, and doesn't raise taxes, Todd could keep his job for 20 years. Full Article...
November 22, 2006
AREA CONGRESS RACES: TREND OR ABERRATION?
Bush almost derailed U.S. Rep. Mark Kirk (R-10), who won with 53.4%. And U.S. Melissa Bean (D-8) proved that she's got a long way to go before she's entrenched in the McHenry/west Lake County 8th District, where she beat David McSweeney with just 50.9%. Bush fatigue cost Republicans 10% across-the-board. Every Republican congressional candidate's vote was down from 2004. The "25,000 Vote Rule" means that Kirk, Bean, and Jerry Weller (R-11) are vulnerable; any incumbent who wins by less than that amount is in jeopardy. Unless Iraq is off the table by 2008, Kirk could lose. Republicans will find a more credible challenger for Bean. As for Roskam, he'll be tough to beat in 2008 if he works the district hard. Full Article...
November 15, 2006
GOP SUBURBAN COLLAPSE SPURS BLAGOJEVICH WIN
As Judy Baar Topinka (R) discovered, you can't beat the $25 Million Man. Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich (D), who presides over what the U.S. Attorney called "pay-to-play on steroids" in state government, won his second term by an unofficial 371,183 votes (49.5%). That's less than his 2002 winning margin of 252,080 (52.2%). The Kid's overall vote declined from 1,847,040 in 2002 to 1,648,368 in 2006. By spending $600,000 a week on negative TV ads from May through September, Blagojevich changed the complexion of the race. Normally, it's a referendum on the incumbent. But he so poisoned the credibility of Topinka that the contest became a choice between the repugnant governor and the more repugnant challenger. The Green Party candidate got 10.5%. Blago won because Topinka tanked in the suburbs; he won Cook County by 451,719, and the suburbs by 84,246. In the collar counties, he carried Lake and Will, and lost overall by 30,230 -- far less than his 147,338-vote loss in 2006. Blago lost Downstate by 106,739, more than his 2002 loss of 69,556. Blago pledges "progress" in his next term. But he may be progressing toward an indictment and conviction. Full Article...
November 8, 2006
NO CHICAGO RESPITE: NEXT CAMPAIGN BEGINS
It's a pain that won't end. While the rest of the country can thankfully return to normalcy, immune from electioneering for at least a year, Chicagoans must endure another five months of misery. The city election is Feb. 27, 2007, and the runoff is April 3. Despite the plethora of scandals surrounding City Hall (with 41 convictions in the Hired Truck probe) and county government, Mayor Rich Daley is favored to win another term. He may face three black (Dock Walls, Dorothy Brown, and Jesse Jackson Jr.) and one Hispanic (Luis Gutierrez) foes. But Chicagoans seem to be tolerant of corruption, and fear a Daley-free city government. Facing four minority challengers is like facing one, making Daley a solid favorite. "Reform" is a word that doesn't yet resonate. Daley's slate is favored: Miguel del Valle for clerk, and Stephanie Neely for treasurer. In aldermanic races, pro-Daley incumbents look formidable in the Northwest Side 41st, 45th, 39th and 36th wards. Full Article...
November 1, 2006
STROGER LIKELY LOSER FOR BOARD PRESIDENT
Todd Stroger is an amiable dunce. He is not Barack Obama. That's Republican Tony Peraica's hoped-for salvation in the contest for Cook County Board president. No pressure is being applied by the Daley Administration on white ward and township Democratic committeemen to produce for Todd, as was the case in the past for John Stroger. Peraica may be the first Republican to win the job since 1966. But he must surpass Aurie Pucinski''s dismal showing in 1998, when John beat her with 63.1%, carrying 20 of 24 white wards, and 46 of 50 Chicago wards. John beat her in Chicago by 380,809 votes, and Pucinski won the suburbs by just 26,041 votes. To win, Peraica needs 75% of the vote in the city's white wards, a 2-1 win in the Lakefront wards, 10% of the black and Hispanic vote, and 65% of the suburban vote. In a perfect anti-Stroger, anti-Daley storm, Peraica will win by 15,000 votes. But don't hold your breath. Full Article...
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