October 11, 2006
"FOLEY FIASCO" SINKING REPUBLICAN HOUSE HOPES

ANALYSIS & OPINION BY RUSS STEWART

The dark cloud hovering over the Republicans in the 2006 congressional elections has a silver lining: If the Republicans get clobbered on Nov. 7 and lose their majorities of 55-45 in the U.S. Senate and 323-203 in the U.S. House, they will be in a much better political position in 2008.

Their expectation is that a Democratic majority would be obnoxiously liberal and obsessively anti-Bush. They would pass a plethora of new spending bills, which the president would veto, and they would initiate hearings to censure or impeach the president over his Iraq decisions, thereby enraging the Republican base. With split control of the branches of government, gridlock would ensue.

In that situation, the Republican presidential candidate, either John McCain or Rudy Giuliani, would be in a position to campaign against the "extreme" or "ineffectual" Congress, and the 2008 election would be about "leadership," not "change."

Conversely, should the Republicans keep control in 2006, albeit with narrow majorities, the 2008 election would definitely be about "change," giving the Democratic presidential candidate an edge.

The Mark Foley fiasco surely seals the Republicans' doom in House elections. Just when the Republicans were convinced that momentum was shifting, with brightening economic news, a stock market surge, lower gas prices and rising Bush approval, the so-called "sex scandal" involving e-mails to House pages blunts their progress. Now it's no longer a question of whether Republican incumbents will "under-perform," but rather by how much. Their fear is that turnout of the Republican base may decline by 10 percent or more and that 10 to 15 percent of the independents who normally vote Republican may switch this year.

The Republicans hope, however, that "inappropriate e-mails" do not rise to the level of "inappropriate touching." There is no question that the House Republican leadership should have disciplined Foley sooner. Unless more e-mails surface, the scandal may be old news by Nov. 7.

About 180 of the 232 Republican congressmen are from safe districts where they can easily absorb a 5 to 10 percent diminution in their customary vote, but in about 50 districts that kind of decline spells defeat. In Illinois, where the Democrats hold a 10-9 edge in the congressional delegation, a Democratic "wave" could flip at least one seat and make other Republicans sweat. Here's a look at key races:

8th U.S. House District (McHenry and Lake counties and northwest Cook County suburbs): Democrat Melissa Bean scored an upset in 2004 over complacent incumbent Phil Crane, and this seat ranks as one of the few Republican takeover opportunities. George Bush won the district with 56 percent of the vote in both 2000 and 2004, and Republicans feel that the 2004 outcome was a rejection of Crane, not an embrace of Bean.

The Republican candidate is businessman David McSweeney, who spent $1.9 million of his own money to win the primary. As of July 1 Bean had $2.1 million in her campaign account, to McSweeney's $472,000. Bean has been deluging the district with direct mail, touting her "independence," emphasizing her visibility and accessibility (by returning to the district every weekend) and blasting McSweeney for opposing stem cell research and abortion rights. Bean supported the Central American Free Trade Agreement, infuriating organized labor but winning the endorsement of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.

Bean has not made Iraq an issue, and she has cast some fiscally conservative votes. Against a well known, well liked and well funded incumbent, McSweeney is floundering. He slams her as a liberal and cites her votes against tort reform and more oil refinery construction, but he has gained little traction. McSweeney has not excited the Republican base, and Bean is already up with ads on television. My prediction: Bean will win with a solid 56 percent of the vote.

6th U.S. House District (western Cook County suburbs, DuPage County): In this district, held by conservative Republican icon Henry Hyde for 32 years, Iraq is an issue. In a recent debate, Republican Peter Roskam criticized national Democrats for their "cut and run" position on Iraq, prompting Democrat Tammy Duckworth, who lost her legs fighting in Iraq, to label the assertion "crude."

A Duckworth poll in May showed that 49 percent of the district's residents are Republicans and 36 percent are Democrats. The Roskam-Duckworth race was tied at 40-40. A mid-September poll taken by Goodwin Simon Victoria Research showed the race tied at 41-41. That should be troubling for both candidates. Why is there no movement?

Duckworth is a media celebrity, and she had $902,000 in her account on July 1. Roskam is a veteran state senator backed by the DuPage County Republican machine, and he had $1.3 million on hand. They've waged a visible campaign, with Roskam positioning himself as more conservative on taxes, immigration and Iraq while Duckworth wants to tie U.S. withdrawal to Iraqi troop training. But neither has opened a lead, which indicates either strong resistance to both contenders or a serious problem in choosing between two quality contenders.

Hyde won in 2004 with 56 percent of the vote and in 2002 with 65 percent, so Roskam is under-performing Hyde's vote by 15 percent and the Republican base by 8 percent. A month from the election, he should be near 50 percent. Duckworth is on television promising to be an "independent," not a "rubber stamp." If the Foley situation dampens Republican turnout by a couple thousand votes, and if independents break 60-40 for Duckworth, Roskam loses. My prediction: Roskam by fewer than 1,000 votes.

14th U.S. House District (Western DuPage County, Kane, Kendall and DeKalb counties, and rural counties to the west): If blame must assigned to the Foley Fiasco, Republican House Speaker Dennis Hastert gets it. "I'm deeply sorry that this has happened," he was quoted, adding that he was taking responsibility because "the buck stops here." Hastert has represented the district, which includes the Yorkville, Elgin, Aurora and Saint Charles, since 1986, and he has been speaker since 1999. If Republicans lose the House in November, Hastert is expected to resign his seat, but he won't lose this election.

Hastert was re-elected with 69 percent of the vote in 2004 and with 74 percent in 2002. He was hit with negative headlines last year when it was revealed that he made a $2 million profit from the sale of 195 acres of land that he bought in Plano in 2002. After Congress earmarked $207 million to build the Prairie Parkway, the value of Hastert's property soared. Hastert also said that billionaire Democratic activist George Soros, who has supported the legalization of marijuana, may have gotten money from "drug groups." Soros allegedly funded the group that investigated the Foley situation in payback.

Nevertheless, Hastert is much respected by his constituents. Democrat John Laesch hopes for some falloff in Hastert's base vote. My prediction: Hastert will win with 62 percent of the vote.

19th U.S. House District (Far Downstate, south of Springfield): Republican incumbent John Shimkus is chairman of the congressional board that oversees the page program. He has admitted that he saw the e-mails in 2005 and said that he confronted Foley and told him to cease and desist. Was that enough? Shimkus is criticized by his unknown and under-funded Democratic opponent, Danny Stover, but local media have not attacked him.

Shimkus, of Collinsville, won the seat in 1996, succeeding Democrat Dick Durbin, who was elected U.S. senator. He was re-elected with 69 percent of the vote in 2004, and he defeated a Democratic incumbent in the remapped district with 55 percent of the vote in 2002. When he first ran for the House, he took a 12-year term limit pledge, which he has since retracted. My prediction: Shimkus will win with a reduced 61 percent of the vote. In 2008, against a formidable Democrat, he could be in trouble.

11th U.S. House District (Will, Kankakee, Grundy and LaSalle counties): The good news for incumbent Republican Jerry Weller is that Mark Foley's name has eclipsed that of Jack Abramoff. Weller, first elected in 1994, is a member of the House Ways and Means Committee, which enables him to raise huge amounts of campaign cash. He has entrenched himself in the district, which runs along the Interstate 80 corridor. In 2004, after spending $1.8 million, he was re-elected with 59 percent of the vote; in 2002 he spent $1.6 million and won with 64 percent.

According to news reports, Weller took a 1999 trip to Louisiana which was sponsored by a lobbying firm that then employed Abramoff, who has since been convicted of making improper campaign contributions. Weller filed a belated disclosure and apologized, but he did not explain why he went on the trip.

Weller's 2004 Democratic opponent tried to make an issue of the fact that he married the daughter of a Guatemalan general who was the county's military dictator in 1982 and 1983 and who allegedly allowed the genocide of Mayan Indians. That charge fizzled. His foe this year, John Pavich, a 30-year-old attorney and former CIA analyst, is ignoring the Abramoff tie and calling for the resignation of Hastert and Shimkus. My prediction: Weller will win with 56 percent of the vote.

The bottom line: Democrats are now ripping the "culture of corruption" in Hastert's House, but that "culture" also pervades Chicago, Cook County and state government. By comparison, Hastert's nonfeasance, as opposed to malfeasance or misfeasance, looks paltry.