October 25, 2006
HOLD-YOUR-NOSE ELECTION MEANS BLAGOJEVICH WIN
The reality is that Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich is a slam dunk. The question is: Is it slam dunk for re-election to a second term? Or is it a slam dunk for the federal slammer? The answer is both. Blago's polls show him to be monumentally unpopular. He's spent almost $20 million on TV ads over the past year, $600,000 a week since May, with 1,000 gross rating points. He's leading Republican Judy Baar Topinka unimpressively --44-34% in the latest SurveyUSA poll, and 39-30% in the latest Glengariff poll. Any incumbent under 50% is a loser, but Topinka, due to Blago's relentless TV ad onslaught, has "favorables" under 30%. The governor says he is "betrayed...sad...let down...dismayed and disappointed" over top fundraiser Tony Rezko's 24-count indictment. But where did he get the $50 million over the past 6 years to get himself elected and re-elected? Expect Rezko to "flip," and implicate Blago. Expect Blago to beat Topinka 45-40%, with 15% to Green Party candidate Rich Whitney. And expect a Blago indictment and conviction within 2 years thereafter. Like his predecessor, George Ryan, the feds will prove that Blago knew of and benefited from the "quid pro quo" funds raised by his underlings. Full Article...
October 18, 2006
DEMOCRATS ONCE AGAIN TARGET "RINO" COULSON
Just two years ago, State Representative Beth Coulson (R-17) was the Democrats' Number One target. Not this year. She won by just 666 votes in 2002, and the 2004 political atmosphere was poisonous for all Republicans. Coulson's North Shore district, which contains Glenview and parts of Skokie, Wilmette and Evanston, went 58.8% for John Kerry, and Barack Obama won overwhelmingly. Coulson's 2004 Democratic foe, Michele Bromberg, ran a 5-word campaign: I am not a Republican. Bromberg spent $452,039, of which $312,001 came from state Democrats; Coulson spent $474,299. Bromberg had mailers lumping Coulson with Alan Keyes. The result was a stunner: Coulson won by 4,107 votes. Now Democrat Judith Rae Ross is trying to oust Coulson, and she lacks both money and issues. Coulson will win again. For Republicans, their suburban atrophy will continue: They are a 27-32 minority in the Illinois Senate. They could lose three suburban seats. Full Article...
October 11, 2006
"FOLEY FIASCO" SINKING REPUBLICAN HOUSE HOPES
The specter of the Mark Foley Fiasco has, quite predictably, oozed into Illinois. The Speaker of the House, Dennis Hastert, from Illinois' 14th District, bears some of the blame, but he is secure in his seat. But the Republicans, numbering 232 in the U.S. House (out of 435) may lose anywhere from 20 to 40 seats, which means Hastert is the ex-speaker. The scandal may prompt Republican congressmen -- and congressional candidates -- to "under perform," or run 5-10 percent below the customary Republican vote in their district. If that occurs, Dave McSweeney will lose to Cong. Melissa Bean (D-8), and Tammy Duckworth (D) will win in the 6th District over Peter Roskam (R) for Henry Hyde's west suburban seat. Republican incumbents John Shimkus (R-19). Jerry Weller (11th), and Mark Kirk (10th) will also be hard-pressed in their districts. Full Article...
October 4, 2006
A TALE OF TWO RACES: "ANGER FACTOR" DIMS
Voters in Illinois are both weary and wary. They're weary of the interminable scandals in Chicago, Cook County, and Illinois government, which they deem to be standard operating practice. And they're wary of any politician who promises to change business-as-usual, because they know it won't happen. But they aren't particularly angry. The national economic situation is brightening, so incumbents may not be punished. In the Illinois governor's race, it's over. Incumbent Democrat Rod Blagojevich has run a textbook-perfect race, neatly demonizing the quirky and quippy Judy Baar Topinka as quacky and crazy. "What was she thinking?" will be a legendary tagline. By making his foe more repulsive than he, Blagojevich will win by about 300,000 votes. In the Cook County Board president's race, Republican Tony Peraica needs to foment more voter anger. He's lambasting county corruption and nepotism, and his issue is the "coronation" of Todd Stroger, whom he portrays as an amiable dunce. Stroger is blasting Peraica as a "radical George Bush Republican." Voter anger is dissipating, and so are Peraica's chances. Full Article...
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