May 31, 2006
TWO REPUBLICANS VIE TO CHALLENGE DELEO
How lucky can you get? Chicago's Northwest Side State Sen. Jim DeLeo (D-10) didn't draw a 2006 Republican opponent during the filing period which ended last December. In fact, DeLeo, who is an assistant Democratic majority leader, didn't have a Republican foe in 1992, 1996, 1998 or 2002. That makes DeLeo a prime candidate to be afflicted with the "Howie Carroll Syndrome" -- in which a longtime incumbent remains unknown, undefined and vulnerable due to never having had to mount a vigorous campaign. But then DeLeo lucked out again. Under state statute, the Republicans can choose a candidate within 60 days of the March 21 primary to fill the vacancy in the 10th Senate District. On March 7, Republican committeemen from Niles Township and the 38th Ward met, organized their committee, and picked police officer and FOP board member John Fitzgerald to run. On May 18, Republican committeemen from the 41st and 45th wards, along with Maine Township, met at Mike McAuliffe's office, organized another committee, repudiated the May 7 choice, and picked former State Senator Fred Rupley to run. So now Fitzgerald and Rupley will go at it. They will quibble about which committee was properly constituted, and lawsuits will ensue to compel the state Board of Election to "certify" one of them -- and their candidate. In the meantime, DeLeo, with over $470,000 cash-on-hand, will continue to coast to re-election. Full Article...
May 24, 2006
DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE MAY SINK NATARUS, HAITHCOCK
Oddities are rarities in Chicago politics, especially in ward aldermanic elections. Yet two oddities have arisen as the 2007 municipal elections approach -- in the 42nd and 2nd wards. In the 42nd, a Republican could oust longtime (since 1971) Alderman Burt Natarus; and in the 2nd, a white could oust black incumbent Madeline Haithcock, a pro-Daley alderman in Mayor Daley's ward. Demographic change has been swift and significant in both wards. In the north Loop/Gold Coast/Rush Street/south Lincoln Park 42nd, Natarus has been an active, 24/7, headline-grabbing alderman, but his upscale constituents are increasingly Republican, and spend much time at their second homes. Natarus's efforts may be under-appreciated. In the south Loop/Dearborn Park 2nd, Haithcock is caught in a squeeze between a growing white population (and her backing of a street for slain Black Panther Fred Hampton didn't help win white votes), and her estrangement from U.S. Rep. Bobby Rush, the ward's black Democratic committeeman. Daley's behind her, but whites are now a voting majority, and Rush will do his utmost to beat Haithcock. Full Article...
May 17, 2006
CONTESTED RACES LIKELY IN 35TH, 36TH AND 47TH WARDS
Absence supposedly makes the heart grow fonder, and the absence of competition makes a Chicago alderman very fond. However, competition has reared its ugly head in at least two city wards -- the 30th and 36th -- and may soon do so in two more -- the 32nd and 47th. In the northwest side 36th Ward, long dominated with an iron grip by Zoning Committee chairman Bill Banks, firefighter Nicholas Sposato is running on a platform of stopping "unrestrained community development." In the Hispanic-majority near northwest side 30th Ward, the old switcheroo has occurred. Rey Colon ran as an anti-Daley, anti-HDO candidate for alderman in 1999 and 2003. He beat incumbent Vilma Colom in 2003, and promptly allied himself with the mayor and the Hispanic Democratic Organization. Now they're backing him for re-election, and Colom is trying to position herself as a pro-Daley, anti-HDO independent. Good luck. In the demographically changing 47th (Ravenswood) and 32nd (Bucktown) wards, with an infusion of upscale buyers, incumbents Gene Schulter and Ted Matlak will face competition, but it has not yet crystallized. Full Article...
May 10, 2006
OPPOSITION SPOTTY IN 2007 ALDERMANIC RACES
Despite a plethora of scandals in the Daley Administration, a remarkable dearth of aldermanic aspirants have emerged for the upcoming February, 2007 Chicago elections. On the Northwest Side, every incumbent alderman -- all of whom are loyal Daley supporters -- are politically secure. It takes a notable confluence of factors to beat a Chicago alderman -- like a split in the Democratic organization, a self-funder who can spend $100,000, a combustible neighborhood issue, fatigue with the incumbent, or scandal. None of these factors are apparent. Frank Coconate, a backer of Jesse Jackson Jr. for mayor, is trying to corral some aldermanic candidates, but has met scant success. Here's a look at contests in the 45th, 38th, 50th, 41st and 33rd wards. Full Article...
May 3, 2006
WILL "UNDER-PERFORMING" REPUBLICANS SUFFER IN '06?
To be alliterative, the Bush Blight is badly burdening the Republicans. With a 37% approval rating, the president will cause virtually every 2006 Republican candidate to under-perform -- which means they run anywhere from 5 to 15% behind the Bush 2004 showing in their respective districts. In safe Republican districts, a 10% diminution is absorbable. In closer races, it is dangerous. But, for challengers, it is insurmountable. In Illinois' 6th and 8th congressional districts, both of which had comfortable Bush majorities in 2000 and 2004. GOP nominees Peter Roskam and Dave McSweeney would be easy winners in any year but 2006. But McSweeney is up against Democratic incumbent Melissa Bean, and Roskam faces Iraq War hero Tammy Duckworth. My early prediction: Roskam and Bean will score narrow victories. Full Article...
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