February 22, 2006
"DARWINISM" EXPLAINS INTENSE MWRD RACE

ANALYSIS & OPINION BY RUSS STEWART

When debating the origin of the universe, many scientists postulate the theory of evolution, as elucidated by Charles Darwin, whose studies indicate an unguided natural selection of the species and the survival of the fittest.

Some theologians espouse the theory of creationism, namely, that God created the universe. However, after literalists insisted for centuries that God created the world around 4000 B.C., creationists have latched onto a new concept: intelligent design. They contend that the details of the universe are so complex that they can only be explained as the product of a designer: God.

When it comes to the complex politics of Chicago and Cook County, however, Darwinism is an impossibility. There is no unguided natural selection. Intelligent design rules. Democratic dominance is the product of a designer: the boss of City Hall. Original power begat the clout that begat the favoritism and family connections that continue to beget the control of the machinery of city and county government and of the process of nominating and electing candidates who constitute that machinery.

The intelligent design of the Chicago Democratic Machine dates to the 1930s, from Ed Kelly to Richard J. Daley to Richard M. Daley. Despite the current mayor's travails with the Hired Truck Program scandal, Rich Daley still rules. The only exception, and the only fount of Darwinism, is at the Metropolitan Water Reclamation District, where the nomination of the nine commissioners, each of whom earn $50,000 annually, is a virtual crap shoot. Democratic party slating is almost meaningless, and the powerful presidency has become a revolving door.

With an annual budget of $800 million and 2,100 jobs, the water district is a vital fund-raising cog in the Democratic Machine. The district's employees are covered by civil service, but the various contractors, who are building the $3.2 billion 109-mile "Deep Tunnel" water retention project and other projects, are hefty donors to the local Democrats. However, in the past 11 Democratic primaries, from 1984 through 2004, four incumbents have lost and 10 nonslated candidates have won. Of the nine current commissioners, seven won their initial primary by beating a slated candidate.

In other words, the district is the land of opportunity for ambitious politicians who recognize that sheer, blind luck can beat the machine.

"There has been no corruption or scandals," said water district president Terry O'Brien, who is running for re-election in 2006. The federal investigation into the Hired Truck Program uncovered corruption and bribery in the city Department of Streets and Sanitation, and O'Brien is concerned that voters will be confused and penalize the water district commissioners, who have less name identification than the Chicago Bears taxi squad -- next to zero. O'Brien's predecessors as president, Nick Melas and Tom Fuller, lost their bids for renomination in 1992 and 1996, respectively.

Darwinism prevails in Democratic primaries for district commissioner. It's unguided natural selection and survival of the fittest. No incumbent is safe. That's because they're so obscure as to be irrelevant, so such mundane matters as first or last ballot position, gender, ethnic surname (usually Irish), party slating in a large field, committeeman endorsements and media endorsements have a major impact.

This year, in the March 21 primary, the Democratic slate includes incumbents O'Brien and William Harris and attorney Barrett Pedersen. Six other candidates are seeking the three nominations: Frank Avila, Debra Shore, Bogie Stefanski, Dean Maragos, Patricia Horton and Lewis Powell. Harris, Horton and Powell are black. Most black committeemen are backing Harris, and many are supporting Horton, an ally of state Senator Rickey Hendon. Powell, a South Sider, ran and lost in 2002 and 2004. Hence, there is an informal Harris-Horton-Powell "black ticket."

Avila, who is Hispanic, ran for district commissioner in 2004, finishing fourth and trailing the third-place winner by just 38,745 votes. His father, M. Frank Avila, is a water district commissioner, having won an upset in 2002 after failed bids in 1998 and 2000. Shore, of Evanston, is gay and a self-proclaimed environmentalist. She has built a coalition of liberals, feminists and gays from the North Shore and the Lakefront, and she is backed by U.S. Representative Jan Schakowsky and Cook County Commissioner Larry Suffredin. She also boasts the Sierra Club endorsement.

Maragos ran for 44th Ward alderman in 2003. Stefanski is a county employee, and he is backed by Alderman Dick Mell (33rd), the father-in-law of the governor.

Why all this vigorous activity? First, a commissioner gets paid $50,000 annually, attends two meetings per month, gets a car and a staff of three, has input into the district's $800 million annual budget, and has a 6-year term. It's a nice gig, if you can get it.

Second, the job used to be a reward for over-the-hill politicians, but now it is viewed as a steppingstone to higher office. Former commissioners Jerry Cosentino and Aurie Pucinski used it to move up to state treasurer and clerk of the Cook County Circuit Court, respectively. Nancy Drew Sheehan became a judge. Patty Young ran for clerk of court. If Avila, Pedersen or Maragos win in 2006, there's no doubt that they'll seek higher office. Avila, an attorney who has represented several Hired Truck "whistle blowers," could run for city clerk -- or even mayor -- in 2007.

And third, it's a break-in opportunity. Instead of waiting (like Pedersen) for years to be slated, a water district bid is a no-risk proposition: A loss is inconsequential, but a win means instant clout. Incumbent commissioners O'Brien, Young, Avila, Kathy Meany, Cynthia Santos and Barbara McGowan all ran against the Democratic slate and won.

Since the water district covers all of Cook County, the cost of waging a countywide campaign is prohibitive. Being slated is helpful, but Democratic ward and township committeemen do not make the district a priority. Voters have no idea who is running, and many choose on the basis of ballot spot, gender or ethnicity. Therefore, the following considerations have an impact:

*Ballot position, which is determined by lottery among those filing on the first day. Being first is critical. The first candidate on the ballot in 1986 (Sheehan), 1988 (O'Brien), 1992 (Young), 1996 (Santos), 1998 (Majewski) and 2002 (Meany) won, and the last candidate in 1998 (McGowan) and 2002 (Avila) won. The larger the field, the more important the top or bottom spot. In 2004 the younger Avila was last on the ballot and almost won. In 2002 the elder Avila was last on the ballot and won by 2,605 votes. This year Frank Avila is again last, and Maragos is first.

*Gender. Unslated women won in 1986 (Sheehan), 1990 (Meany), 1992 (Young), 1996 (Santos) and 1998 (McGowan). They were first or last on the ballot. This year Shore and Horton can expect a gender boost. Shore is second on the ballot, and Horton is third.

*Slating. In a huge field, the slated candidates usually have an edge. In 1994, with 22 candidates running, the slate was listed 10-11-12 and won; in 2000, with 12 candidates, the slate was 6-7-8 and again won. But when the field shrinks or a woman is first on the ballot, the slate tanks. At least one slated candidate lost in 1984 (five candidates), 1986 (eight), 1988 (10), 1992 (11), 1996 (13), 1998 (14), 2002 (nine) and 2004 (11). In March the O'Brien-Harris-Pedersen slate is 4-5-6.

*Ethnicity: Irish surnames (like O'Brien) are magical, and vowel-ending surnames are poisonous on the district ballot. In 1998 the slate was Majewski-Sheehan-Gary Marinaro, and they were 1-2-3, but McGowan was last, and she beat Marinaro. Black voters do not support white ethnics, and that was obvious in 2004, when Majewski ran more than 50,000 votes behind Young and McGowan ran surprisingly well in the white wards.

*Coalition-building. Avila claims the support of a diverse array of Democratic committeemen and power brokers, including U.S. Representative Jesse Jackson Jr. and Aldermen Dick Mell, Bill Banks, Ed Burke, Gene Schulter and Manny Flores. Shore claims the support of Flores, Aldermen Rey Colon and Leslie Hairston, and Cook County Commissioner Bobbie Steele. Mell also is backing Maragos. And virtually every committeeman, black and white, is supporting O'Brien. But, among the rest, it's mix and match.

Issues are irrelevant. O'Brien boasts that the water district's budget has been balanced for 9 years, that the district's property tax levy has declined, and that the district has a AAA bond rating. O'Brien also noted that 101 of the 109 miles of the "Deep Tunnel" project have been completed, as have two of three reservoirs. Every candidate talks about environmental sensitivity, but none criticizes O'Brien's stewardship.

My prediction: O'Brien is a cinch to win. He has the necessary Irish surname, ballot position, slating and endorsements. The Avila name has been on the water district ballot for the past four primaries. The Daley forces did their utmost to beat Avila in 2004; they won't succeed in 2006. Shore is the flavor of the month among the liberal crowd. Harris will get solid black support.

The finish will be O'Brien-Avila-Shore, with Harris and Pedersen close behind.