October 26, 2005
"BUSH FATIGUE" GIVES DEMS OPTIMISM
Will it be Team Clinton versus Rudy in 2008? Ironically, the more problems that beset President Bush, and the less popular he becomes, the less likely it is that Hillary Clinton will be his successor. 2008 is still three years away, but "Bush fatigue" should not make Democrats prematurely optimistic about taking the White House. Both Rudy Giuliani and John McCain would be formidable contenders, and neither will carry any Bush baggage. Among Democrats, the Iraq War and the economy will play a key role in the nominee choice. If the War is still unresolved, then an "anti-war" candidate like Sen. Russ Feingold could surge; if the economy stutters, then John Edwards' "Two America's" drivel will have appeal. The more likely it is that the Republicans will keep the presidency, the more likely it is that Hillary Clinton will be the Democrat's nominee. And if Bush is popular in 2008, then the Republicans may opt for a "real Republican": a social conservative like Sen. George Allen. Full Article...
October 19, 2005
"DEMOGRAPHICS OF DEVELOPMENT" SHOW NORTH/SOUTH SPLIT
Rapid commercial and residential development foments demographic change. And, in the collar counties (DuPage, Kane, Lake, McHenry, Will and Kendall) surrounding Chicago and Cook County, demographic change is fomenting Democratic gains. In 1984, just a generation ago, Ronald Reagan carried the collar counties by a hefty 334,381 votes; in 2004, President Bush won those counties by just 104,726 votes. Back in the 1980s, suburbanites were against whatever they thought Chicago wanted, and were phobic about taxes. No more. Suburbanites now accept that it takes taxes to provide infrastructure, roads, schools, police and other services. In DuPage, Republicans are still the "government" party, spending taxes liberally; in Lake, Republicans still dominate because they have embraced a "balanced-growth" agenda, with both bulldozers and green spacers getting attention. In McHenry, massive traffic congestion tests Republican dominance. And in Will, where the Chicago Hired Truck scandal beat Republican State's Attorney Jeff Tomczak (because his indicted dad sent city workers to campaign for him), Democrats are on a tear. But, overall, Republicans are like the Dutch Boy with his finger in the dike. The question is: When will it burst? Full Article...
October 12, 2005
"SERVICE" IS THE ISSUE IN SECRETARY OF STATE RACE
Jesse White, Illinois' two-term Secretary of State, is viewed as a political icon and deemed unbeatable. But Republican Dan Rutherford is taking aim at White's clay feet. Rutherford plans to run a "pro-change," not an anti-White campaign. And the incumbent has plenty of baggage. Democrat Rod Blagojevich called White's office a "cesspool of corruption," and the governor's Office of Management and Budget made severe critiques of office procedure. White has called Blagojevich a "liar," and said that he is "cleaning up corruption." Rutherford asked: Why has it taken him 7 years? Office employees have been charged with taking bribes to create fake driver's licenses and auto titles, and with doing political work on state time; also, $1.4 million in state equipment is missing, and White doesn't know how vehicles are being used. But White was re-elected in 2002 by 1.3 million votes, carrying Chicago by 519,327 and Cook County by 772,479 votes. White is well-known, and black voters will back him almost unanimously. Rutherford has plenty of talking points, but he can't win. Full Article...
October 5, 2005
MAJOR BATTLES BREWING AMONG DEMOCRATS IN '06
It's time to put up of shut up. The filing deadline for the March 21, 2006 primary is Dec. 19, 2005. It's time to stop pondering, and start running. Gov. Blagojevich's two prospective Democrative opponents are apparently taking a pass, even though the governor's popularity is in the tank. For state treasurer, an obscure Downstater slated by the Democrats will likely lose to a Chicagoan. Northwest Sider Frank Coconate is taking on wealthy lawyer Bill Marovitz, married to Playboy's Christie Hefner, for 9th Dist. State Central Committeeman. "I'll make him spend it all," promised Coconate, whose Opposition 2007 group also has candidates running for state senator, state representative, and county commisioner. Mike Nardello is taking on State Sen. Don Harmon, but State Rep. Mike McAuliffe looks secure in 2006. Full Article...
Previous Articles