October 5, 2005
MAJOR BATTLES BREWING AMONG DEMOCRATS IN '06
ANALYSIS & OPINION BY RUSS STEWART
A multitude of fierce skirmishes will be fought next year, but they won't only be in Iraq. Democrats on the Northwest Side, usually a fractious bunch, are positioning themselves to do battle in the March 21 primary.
With the Dec. 19 filing deadline a little more than 2 months away, it's time for serious candidates to put up or shut up. And, in many races, they have. Here's a preview of developing - and nondeveloping - Democratic primary contests:
Governor: Two Democratic state representatives, Lou Lang (D-16) of Skokie and Jack Franks (D-63) of McHenry, have shut up. Both have been critical of Rod Blagojevich's performance as governor, but both apparently have decided that Blagojevich is not beatable in a Democratic primary. If they were going to run, they would be in the race by now.
You can't beat somebody with nobody, and Blagojevich likely will have nobody credible challenge him in the primary. A September SurveyUSA poll ranked Blagojevich as the least popular Democratic governor in the nation. His approval rating was 36 percent, and his disapproval rating was 56 percent. That made him the 45th most popular governor out of 50 in the country. The poll was taken during the week when the media hyped the fact that two admitted felons accused the governor of being "involved" in schemes to extract contributions from firms who sought loans from the teachers pension fund.
A primary for governor would boost Democratic turnout. Without it, turnout will be much lower, which benefits local party organizations, who can turn out their loyal, controllable voters.
State Treasurer: In a statewide Democratic primary, nearly 60 percent of the vote is cast in Cook County. In 2004 turnout was 1,310,129, of which 764,163 (58.3 percent) came from Cook County, and in 2002 turnout was 1,320,813, of which 791,605 (59.9 percent) came from Cook County. All five of the Democrats holding statewide constitutional office are from Chicago. So, quite naturally, Downstate Democrats are clamoring for some diversity.
The Democrats have slated an obscure Downstater, Knox County State's Attorney Paul Mangieri, for the post. Now that Cook County Board President John Stroger has announced for re-election, a black candidate - possibly Cook County Clerk of Court Dorothy Brown - definitely will enter the treasurer's race, and likely win.
State Central Committeeman (9th District): Bill Marovitz, an attorney and a former state senator married to Playboy executive Christie Hefner, is a major player in county Democratic politics, and a heavy contributor. Each of Illinois' 19 congressional districts elects a committeeman and a committeewoman. These are largely honorific job titles: Their holders meet to "slate" statewide candidates, an imprimatur that is usually meaningless, and they have the legal authority to fill vacancies on the statewide ticket. Illinois House Speaker Mike Madigan is the 3rd District committeeman, and he used that position to become state party chairman.
Frank Coconate of Edison Park is spearheading "Opposition 2007," an effort to field candidates opposed to Mayor Rich Daley in all of the Northwest Side wards. Coconate was fired from his Department of Water Management job in July, and he is appealing the termination. He intended to run for county commissioner against Republican incumbent Pete Silvestri in 2006, but now he says that he hasn't got the money for such a campaign. He will, instead, file to run against Marovitz.
"I want to open the party to new people and new ideas," said Coconate, the founder of the Northwest Side Democratic Organization. Coconate said that he is not intimidated by Marovitz's wealth. "I want to make him spend it all," he said. The outlook: Marovitz will have to spend plenty to beat Coconate.
State Senator (10th District): Incumbent Jim DeLeo has been a senator since 1993, and he is an assistant majority leader, making him a powerful cog in state government. Before becoming a senator he was a state representative for 8 years. DeLeo has been on the ballot eight times in the past 21 years, and he has never had a competitive race. He is a close ally of 36th Ward Alderman and Democratic Committeeman Bill Banks, the chairman of the City Council Zoning Committee.
DeLeo's Senate district takes in the 20th Illinois House district, represented by Republican Mike McAuliffe, and the 19th District, represented by Democrat Joe Lyons. In 2001, after the remap was crafted by the Democrats, DeLeo was put in the same district with Republican Wally Dudycz, who chose to retire. DeLeo was unopposed in both the primary and election. In his old 10th District he was unopposed for nomination and election in 1992, 1996 and 1998.
Coconate has recruited a DeLeo opponent for 2006: Patricia Mulligan, a restaurateur who lives in the 41st Ward. "She's running, and they won't intimidate her out of the race," Coconate said, referring to Banks and DeLeo. The outlook: DeLeo will win, but he'll have to expend some money.
State Senator (39th District): Mike Nardello, director of finance and administration for the city Department on Aging, a long-time precinct captain in Banks' 36th Ward organization, is challenging the Democratic incumbent, Don Harmon of Oak Park, who was first elected in 2002. DeLeo has endorsed Harmon, but Harmon, like DeLeo, has never had a tough race - he was unopposed in the 2002 primary, and his 2002 Republican foe withdrew. "I can beat him," Nardello said.
The outlook: Of the 208 precincts in the district, only 10 are in the 36th Ward, where Nardello lives. Of the rest, 42 are in Oak Park, where Harmon is the Democratic committeeman, 88 are in Leyden Township, and 38 are in the black-majority 29th and 37th wards. Will Banks back Nardello? If he does, by sending his precinct workers into Leyden Township, then Nardello has a chance. Don't expect that to happen.
Cook County Commissioner (9th District): Silvestri, the Elmwood Park village president, won with 54 percent of the vote in 1994, 1998 and 2002. He is part of the Northwest Side's amorphous "Italian connection." Silvestri's key political ally is state Representative Skip Saviano (R-77) of Elmwood Park, a former legislative aide to DeLeo who shares a Springfield house with his good buddy, state Representative Mike McAuliffe (R-20). Silvestri also is closely allied with McAuliffe and with 41st Ward Alderman Brian Doherty, with whom he shares office space.
In 2002, when Silvestri was opposed by Democrat Rob Martwick, the son of Norwood Park Township Democratic Committeeman Robert Martwick, the 36th Ward went for Martwick by 3,222 votes, but Martwick carried his home Norwood Park Township by just 454 votes while Silvestri won the 41st Ward by 2,507 votes, Leyden Township by 5,348 votes and Maine Township by 3,735 votes. Overall, Martwick lost by 6,831 votes.
Silvestri's potential 2006 Democratic foes include Dennis Fleming, who garnered 41 percent of the vote in the 2004 primary for state representative in the 15th District, losing to John D'Amico. Coconate's group will back Pat Mazzone, an accountant who lives in the 45th Ward. Mazzone intends to use the 2006 race to develop name recognition for a 2007 bid for alderman against incumbent Pat Levar. The outlook: Silvestri need not be even remotely nervous about winning his fourth term.
State Representative (20th District): McAuliffe can be plausibly called the "Teflon Man." After his father, former state representative Roger McAuliffe, died in mid-1996, Mike won a tough race against Tom Needham with 52.4 percent of the vote, and he was re-elected with 66.5 percent in 1998 and with 61.7 percent in 2000 (against Coconate). In 2002 McAuliffe faced fellow incumbent Bob Bugielski, who was backed by the Banks/DeLeo/36th Ward crowd, and triumphed with 53.7 percent of the vote. In 2004 Democratic state Representative Ralph Capparelli, a fixture in Springfield since 1971, who had been elected in an adjoining district in 2002, chose to run against McAuliffe, and the Republican soundly thrashed him with 59.2 percent of the vote.
Like his father, who had a nonaggression pact with the 38th Ward Democrats, McAuliffe and Doherty now have a similar arrangement with DeLeo/Banks - they won't try to beat DeLeo, and McAuliffe will get a free pass by the Democrats for the House.
According to reliable sources, Harwood Heights' Democratic Mayor Peggy Fuller will not run against McAuliffe in 2006, nor will Trustee Mark Dobrzycki. "I will not run at this time," said Dobrzycki, whose efforts to motivate the Polish-American vote in Harwood Heights were instrumental in Fuller's 38-vote 2005 win over incumbent Republican Mayor Norb Pabich, who was backed by McAuliffe.
But the Coconate forces intend to offer opposition. According to Coconate, their candidate will be either Dan Burke, a retired Chicago police officer who lost to Doherty in 1999, or Joe Boccia, a housepainter. "We will not give (McAuliffe) a pass," Coconate promised. "A Democrat should represent the district, and it's inexcusable that the Democratic committeemen are not trying to find somebody to beat him." The outlook: McAuliffe is unbeatable in 2006.