September 7, 2005
SKOIEN'S GOP REBUILDING DOOMED TO FAILURE
ANALYSIS & OPINION BY RUSS STEWART
Gary Skoien, the Cook County Republican chairman, is gamely trying to rebuild his moribund party, but, to use a literary allusion, he's sort of like Captain Ahab in relentless pursuit of Moby Dick; however, instead of harpooning the legendary "White Whale," he's shooting himself in the foot and tossing his sailors overboard.
Illinois is now a solid Blue State, primarily because Chicago and Cook County have trended so overwhelmingly Democratic. In the 2004 presidential election, John Kerry beat George Bush statewide by 545,604 votes; Kerry topped Bush by 621,356 votes in Chicago and by 184,501 votes in the suburbs. It was impossible for Bush to overcome Kerry's Cook County margin of 805,857 votes in the Collar Counties and Downstate. Kerry won all 50 Chicago wards and 25 of 30 suburban townships.
And it's getting worse for the Republicans. In 2000 Bush lost Chicago to Al Gore by 604,929 votes and the suburbs by 141,076 votes, losing Cook County by 746,005 votes. Gore won all 50 wards and 20 of 30 townships. Four northwest suburban townships, Hanover, Schaumburg, Elk Grove and Wheeling, backed Bush in 2000 but flipped for Kerry in 2004, as did Lyons in the southwest suburbs.
The only remaining Republican areas are Palatine and Barrington townships in the far northwest suburbs and Lemont, Palos and Orland townships in the southwest suburbs.
But it wasn't always thus. George Bush lost Cook County by only 251,391 votes in 1988, and Ronald Reagan lost by just 57,083 votes in 1984. But racial and generational demographics, coupled with persistent ideological Republican squabbling, have decimated the party. A Republican was elected Cook County state's attorney in 1956, 1972, 1976, 1990 and 1992 and county sheriff in 1962, 1966 and 1986. In each of those victories, the calculus to win was to get more than 65 percent of the vote in the suburbs and close to 40 percent in Chicago.
No longer. In 2004 Bush got an anemic 18.3 percent of the Chicago vote and just 40.6 percent of the suburban vote. Interestingly, the suburban turnout has now surpassed Chicago's; in 2004 it was 991,169, to the city's 982,236. Even with this parity, absent an unusual situation, a Republican will not get 35 percent of the Chicago vote and 65 percent of the suburban vote. Here's why:
First, the black vote in Illinois remains almost monolithically Democratic. The black population according to the 2000 census was 26 percent in Cook County and 37 percent in Chicago. More than 95 percent of blacks vote Democratic, supporting every Democrat on the ticket, even when a black Republican runs against a white Democrat. In the American South, that would not be a problem for the Republicans, who customarily get more than 80 percent of the white vote, but Chicago's white voters don't vote that way.
Chicago's voting population is roughly 50 percent white, 40 percent black and 10 percent Hispanic. The president got about 20 percent of the Hispanic vote, less than 3 percent of the black vote and about 33 percent of the white vote.
In the suburbs, the county's southern and western townships have become majority black. Proviso Township, which includes Maywood, went for Kerry 44,009-17,301. Thornton Township, in the south, went for Kerry 56,143-15,011, adjacent Calumet Township by 6,003-954, Bremen Township by 28,264-16,255 and Rich Township by 26,791-7,982. Those kind of margins mean that no Republican can ever again get two-thirds of the suburban vote.
Second, younger urban whites, particularly single women and gays, tend to be socially liberal, and voting Republican is distinctly unfashionable. In a few upscale areas of Chicago, such as the Gold Coast/North Michigan Avenue 42nd Ward, the Republican vote is increasing, but in other trendy, gentrifying areas, with concentrations of singles, the Republican vote is almost nonexistent.
And third, despite the president's attempt to appeal to Hispanics, no fruit will be borne in Chicago. Most Mexican Americans in Chicago are first-generation noncitizens who can't vote. As Hispanics become more affluent, they move out to the suburbs, often to the Collar County suburbs.
So how does Skoien rebuild the Republican Party?
First, stop the fratricide -- and he should start in his own township. Skoien was elected Palatine Township Republican committeeman in 2002, and he became the Republican county chairman in 2004. His township is one of the few habitually Republican areas in the county, but Republican hegemony is precarious.
In 2000 Bush won Palatine Township by 22,821-16,397; in 2004 his margin was a still healthy 24,626-19,989. John Tatooles was elected committeeman in 1998 in a turnout of 8,462 (to the Democrats' 2,179), and Skoien challenged Tatooles in 2002 and beat him by 2,058 votes. The Republican turnout was 8,698, but the Democrats' was up to 4,016, almost double the turnout in 1998, and Sue Walton was elected the Democratic committeeman.
Once elected, Skoien decided that first goal was to purge the Palatine Republicans of all real or perceived adversaries. Instead of promoting inclusivity and harmony, Skoien excluded Tatooles' workers from his organization. At the township caucus in 2005, Skoien's forces dumped the incumbent supervisor, who was a Tatooles ally, and replaced him with Linda Fleming, the township assessor. With the Republicans fractionalized and fractious, and preoccupied with battling themselves, not the Democrats, Fleming beat Walton for supervisor by just 10,313-8,778.
In 2002 Skoien's organization backed Tom Menzel in a challenge to Republican state Senator Wendell Jones (R-27), and Menzel lost by just 1,782 votes. Jones, who had been appointed to the state Senate seat which became vacant when Peter Fitzgerald was elected to the U.S. Senate, was thereafter reelected with 59.9 percent of the vote, but he never became a part of Skoien's organization. Two years earlier Jones, who is pro-life on abortion, survived a tough challenge from pro-choice Democrat Walton, who had lost races for state representative in 1996 and 1998, by just 943 votes. Jones is retiring in 2006.
Another major player in Skoien's township is Palatine Mayor Rita Mullins, who lost a bitter battle for state representative in 1992, when she was the pro-choice candidate. Mullins is not part of Skoien's organization. Angling to succeed Jones are Kevin O'Connell, the township assessor, and attorney Matt Murphy, a Harper College trustee. Mullins is likely to run, and she would be favored in a primary against two lesser known males, and Walton is the likely Democratic candidate. So, given the chaos in his township, one has to wonder how Skoien will bring order to the county Republicans.
Second, improve the messenger. Skoien's attempts to be creative have been both personally and politically costly. When Skoien offered a $10,000 "reward" to anybody who would furnish information leading to Mayor Rich Daley's "indictment and conviction," he was fired from his investment firm and was roundly castigated by the news media. He recently filed "ethics complaints" with the Illinois Board of Elections alleging that 16 Chicago aldermen, who also serve as Democratic ward committeemen, are running their political operations out of their taxpayer-funded ward offices. Skoien charged that since 1989 more than $1.5 million in city tax dollars have been "wrongfully paid" to rent aldermanic offices in which political activity occurred.
Without question, corruption is flourishing in City Hall. The U.S. attorney's Hired Truck investigation has indicted 31 city workers and convicted 28. The Cook County Forest Preserve District was revealed to be rife with ghost payrollers. There presumably should be substantial voter outrage, and some benefit accruing to the Republicans. After all, a Republican was last elected mayor in 1927 and was last elected Cook County Board president in 1966, so they're blame-free.
But Skoien has discovered, to his enormous chagrin, that he is an irrelevant messenger with an unpersuasive message, namely, end corruption, vote Republican. With George Ryan going on trial in September, Republicans will have a hard time being perceived as the "anti-corruption" party.
By now Skoien should have learned that his job is to grow the party, not to speak for the party. He must minimize divisiveness, especially on such issues as abortion rights, and recruit competent, articulate Republican candidates for countywide office in 2006. Every candidate should become a "messenger" and harp on Democratic "corruption."
There are 17 county commissioners, all elected from single-member districts. Of the 17, only five are Republicans, all suburbanites. Skoien's priority must be to retain all those seats. County Commissioner Tony Peraica is running for county board president in 2006, and he could win if incumbent John Stroger is renominated. Skoien must find some credible Republicans to run for other county offices.
And, in Chicago, Skoien must realize that Bush got 40 percent of the vote or better in the 45th, 42nd and 41st wards and close to a third of the vote in the 39th, 38th, 36th, 23rd, 19th and 13th wards. Only one Chicago alderman is a Republican: Brian Doherty of the 41st Ward. In the 2007 election, Skoien must focus on the election one or two more Republican aldermen, particularly in the 42nd Ward. He must talk less, and recruit more.