June 22, 2005
ROSKAM'S PERSISTENCE LIKELY TO PREVAIL IN 6TH DISTRICT

ANALYSIS & OPINION BY RUSS STEWART

State Senator Peter Roskam of Wheaton is following in the footsteps of conservative Republican icon Henry Hyde in more ways than one. Roskam, who hopes to succeed the retiring Hyde as U.S. representative from the west suburban 6th Illinois House District, understands that planning, persistence and preemption are critical components in any campaign.

But Roskam, like Hyde, for whom he once worked as a congressional aide, also grasps another political reality, namely, if you lose, move. And, equally important: learn from your mistakes.

Way back in 1962, Hyde, a trial lawyer, lived in Wildwood, on the Northwest Side, and ran for Congress against Democratic incumbent Roman Pucinski. He lost 103,677-92,910 -- a very respectable showing. In 1966 Hyde was elected to the Illinois House, where he quickly rose to be majority leader.

In 1974, having had enough of Springfield, Hyde moved to Park Ridge and ran for an open Republican-held congressional seat which encompassed Cook County's western suburbs, from Cicero north to Park Ridge. In a tough contest, he topped Ed Hanrahan 66,027-57,654. After the 1980 redistricting Hyde moved to Bensenville, where he still resides.

Roskam has had a similar odyssey. Born and raised in Hinsdale, Roskam, a trial lawyer, was elected to the Illinois House in 1992 from a western DuPage County district which included Downers Grove, Naperville, Lisle, Lombard, Glen Ellyn, Wheaton, Winfield and West Chicago. After being re-elected twice, Roskam, who resided in Winfield, moved to Naperville and ran for the 13th U.S. House District seat being vacated in 1998 by Republican Harris Fawell. His principal opponent was Judy Biggert, a state representative from the adjoining House district which included Hinsdale, Westmont, Clarendon Hills and Willowbrook. Four other men were in the contest, all staunch conservatives, and all taking votes away from Roskam.

Biggert ran as the moderate, favoring abortion rights, gay rights and gun control and opposing school vouchers. She also embraced term-limits, vowing to quit after three terms -- a pledge which she has since disavowed. Roskam highlighted his support for a ban on partial-birth abortions, for vouchers, and for gun owners' rights, and he attacked Biggert as a tax hiker, noting that she voted for a $485 million school funding bill that included tax increases on cigarettes, casino gambling and telephones. Roskam raised and spent $423,000, but Biggert and her husband self-funded more than $400,00, and she spent more than $1 million.

Hyde endorsed Roskam, his protege in that 1998 race, but Roskam's relentless anti-Biggert attacks alienated the DuPage County Republican establishment. Biggert was endorsed by Fawell, Governor Jim Edgar and Kirk Dillard, a Hinsdale state senator who is now the DuPage County Republican chairman. In a tight result, and benefiting from a significant vote based on her gender and her stance on abortion, Biggert won 24,482-21,784, getting 45.1 percent of the vote to Roskam's 40.1 percent, with the remaining 14.8 percent scattered among the other four candidates.

The 13th District included southern DuPage County and some southwest Cook County suburbs, as well as part of Will County. Biggert thrashed Roskam in DuPage by 18,259-13,992 (a margin of 4,267 votes), while Roskam won Cook by 450 votes and Will by 1,119.

Roskam learned a telling lesson from his 1998 loss, namely, that solidifying one's political and geographic base is much more important that solidifying one's ideological base. When state Senator Beverly Fawell resigned in January of 2000, Roskam was appointed to the vacancy. He was unopposed for re-election in 2000 and 2002. Roskam is now a team player with the DuPage County Republicans, and he has changed his voting residence to Wheaton, in Hyde's 6th District.

For Roskam, 2006 will be sort of a 1998 deja vu. His principal foe will be another woman, state Senator Carole Pankau (R-23), whose base is in the Bloomingdale-Roselle area, in northern DuPage County. The 6th District includes all of DuPage County north of Interstate 88, stretching from Elmhurst and Bensenville in the east to Winfield and Bartlett in the west and taking in Wheaton, Winfield, Bloomingdale, Carol Stream, Roselle, Glendale Heights, Glen Ellyn, Lombard, Itasca, Addison, Villa Park and Wood Dale. It also includes Streamwood, Hanover Park and part of Hoffman Estates, as well as Elk Grove Village, Mount Prospect, Des Plaines, Rosemont and part of Park Ridge, in Cook County. The district went for George Bush in 2000, when he got 53.3 percent of the vote, and in 2004, when he got 54 percent.

Unlike Biggert, Pankau is no liberal. She is a former member of the DuPage County Board, she was a state representative for 12 years, and she succeeded to Pate Philip's state Senate seat in 2004, winning a tough primary against the more conservative Dennis Reboletti by 10,247-8,626. But, in DuPage County politics, she is viewed as an "outsider," and the DuPage "establishment" is coalescing against her.

As a legislator, Pankau, age 57, voted against the Human Rights bill, banning employer discrimination on the basis of sexual orientation, and against charter schools in Chicago. She voted for parental notice of a minors' abortion, for welfare reform, for caps on lawsuit damages, for a ban on partial-birth abortions, for making permanent Edgar's income tax hike, and for making the carrying of a concealed firearm a misdemeanor on the first offense. That should inoculate her as a social-issue conservative, but the Edgar tax-hike vote gives Roskam room to blast her as a liberal, especially since he opposed making the Edgar tax surcharge permanent, while Pankau backed it.

Unlike 1998, Roskam, age 43, has focused on planning and pre-emption. He will get Hyde's endorsement. He has the backing of five of the state senators whose districts overlap into the 6th. He has the endorsement of Dillard and of Philip. All the credible potential male conservative contenders have demurred, including state Senator Dan Cronin of Elmhurst, Elmhurst Mayor Tom Marcucci and DuPage County Board member Brien Sheahan. Roskam raised $150,000 in the month after announcing.

Also in the race is former DuPage County recorder Rick Carney, who is trying to position himself as the most moderate candidate in the race.

Having emerged as the DuPage "establishment" candidate and the clear frontrunner, Roskam can expect to be hammered on two issues: First, his district shopping. However, it's not as though he's an alien intruder from Chicago. He's simply been bouncing around DuPage County in search of a congressional seat. "If he loses, he'll move and find another district," Carney said.

And second, he was a Washington intern for Tom DeLay during 1985 and 1986, and DeLay is now enmeshed in controversy over ethics violations regarding lobbyist-paid travel and the funding of Texas Republican legislative candidates. Roskam said that he has had no contact with DeLay for more than 20 years, but that long-ago "DeLay connection" will surely surface.

Nonetheless, expect Roskam to win the primary easily.

Democrats are hoping for an abrasive, party-splintering Republican primary, with Pankau and Carney isolating Roskam as an "extremist." Two Democrats have announced: Christine Cegelis of Elk Grove, who ran against Hyde in 2004, losing by 26,024 votes and holding Hyde to a career-low 56 percent, and Peter O'Malley of Addison, an arbitrator for the Illinois Workers' Compensation Commission. Both Democrats are pro-choice, and both proclaim that they are fiscal conservatives. Give Cegelis an edge in the 2006 primary, but discount her claim that she will be next year's Melissa Bean.

In congressional contests, coming close in one election does not necessarily ensure victory in the next. It all depends on the context.

If a challenger comes close to beating a veteran incumbent, reducing his victory margin dramatically, then victory in the next election is likely. A textbook example is Bean in the 8th U.S. House District. She lost by 26,649 votes in 2002 but came back unseat incumbent Republican Phil Crane in 2004 by 9,043 votes. Hyde won by 52,476 votes in 2002, and that plunged to 26,024 votes in 2004.

But Hyde is not running in 2006, and when a seat is open, the dynamics are different. Of the 435 members of Congress, 23 won on their second try and two on their third. Of those 25, only seven beat their foe in the previous election, the sitting incumbent; two moved and ran in different districts (as Hyde did and as Roskam is trying to do); ten won after the legislature redrew district lines and a new seat opened; one won after the incumbent died; and five won open seats after the nearly defeated incumbent retired.

Cegelis's problem is that 2004 was a referendum on Hyde, and her vote was primarily an anti-Hyde vote. In 2006, it will be a choice between herself and Roskam in a Republican-leaning district. If Cegelis can raise $1 million, and if she goes negative on Roskam, she could make it close. But don't count on it.