November 24, 2004
DESPITE BIG KERRY WIN, ILLINOIS IS "AQUA" STATE
Illinois sure isn't a Republican Red State, but neither is it a monolithically Democratic Blue. Based on recent elections, Illinois is sort of a Bluish Aqua. John Kerry carried Illinois by 513,342 votes (55 percent), which is double Rod Blagojevich's 252,080-vote win for governor in 2002. Kerry ran 237,731 votes ahead of Al Gore (2000), and 485,013 votes ahead of Bill Clinton (1996). But the Republicans are surging, especially Downstate. President Bush gained 293,994 votes over his 2000 showing, and ran 726,394 ahead of Bob Dole (1996). In most Blue States, Democrats gained in state races, especially for the state legislature. In Illinois, Democrats lost one seat each in the Illinois Senate and House, reducing their majorities to, respectively, 32-27 and 65-53. Republicans should have done much better, picking up a net of five seats in the House and two in the Senate. Here's an analysis of key races, and of how each party bungled one easy pickup. Full Article...
November 17, 2004
"25,000-VOTE RULE" APPLIES TO CRANE LOSS, HYDE WIN
As a prognostication tool, it is infallible. The "25,000-Vote Rule" is an accurate harbinger of congressional fates. If a congressman's winning vote margin declines by more than 25,000 from the last election, or if he wins by less than 25,000 votes in the most recent election, he (or she) is a Dead Man Walking. The Rule applies to both Phil Crane (R-8) and Henry Hyde (R-6), two veteran Illinois Republican congressmen. Crane saw his margin decline from 51,141 in 2000 to 24,649 in 2002; and, sure enough, he lost to Democrat Melissa Bean by 9,043 votes in the solidly Republican 8th District in 2004. Crane's sloth and inattention was his undoing, but he had early notice of his jeopardy. Hyde won in 2000 by 40,447 votes, and in 2002 by 52,476; but he declined to just 26,024 in 2004 -- that's a diminution in excess of 25,000 votes, but he still won by more than 25,000. If Hyde, age 80, runs again in 2006, he's in jeopardy. But expect him to retire. Full Article...
November 10, 2004
"ICON" CAPPARELLI LOSES TO "ENERGRIZER" McAULIFFE
As defeated Democratic State Representative Ralph Capparelli grouses about "scores to settle," the proverbial dust has settled in the Northwest Side Chicago 20th District, and Capparelli is now firmly ensconced in the dustbin of history. In a blow-out of awesome proportions, Republican State Representative Mike McAuliffe walloped Capparelli, capturing almost 60% of the vote. In the 41st Ward, where Capparelli -- who is the dean of the House, having served since 1971 -- is committeeman, McAuliffe won with 63.3%; in the suburbs, McAuliffe won with 59%; and in the 36th Ward, where Democratic Alderman/Committeeman Bill Banks was "neutral," McAuliffe won with 56.1%. Capparelli called Banks a "liar," and Banks said Capparelli broke his word. But the point is this: McAuliffe won a tough race in 2002 by 2,583 votes; he won a tougher race in 2004 by 7,944 votes. The McAuliffe/Doherty/Rosemont Machine is in top form. Full Article...
November 3, 2004
CAMPAIGNS FOR 2005, 2006, 2007 ALREADY UNDERWAY
The 2004 election ended on Nov. 2, but the 2005 election season -- and that of 2006 and 2007 -- began on Nov. 3, 2004. Political jockeying is already underway, but not yet at warp speed, in Chicago's 42nd, 33rd, and 32nd wards, as well as in suburban Cicero, Harwood Heights, Park Ridge, and Maine Township, and for Governor in a primary against incumbent Democrat Rod Blagojevich. The intrigue has major implications: Will Mickey Segal sink Burt Natarus? Will the Gang of Four oust Mayor Pabich? Will Ed Vrdolyak remain supreme? Will Dick Mell take a hike? Is the Rostenkowski reign over? In Cook County and Chicago politics, it ain't over until it's over, and it's never over. Full Article...
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