October 27, 2004
McAULIFFE SURGING IN 20TH DISTRICT HOUSE RACE

ANALYSIS & OPINION BY RUSS STEWART

In 2002 state Representative Mike McAuliffe (R-20) ran a perfect campaign against a flawed opponent and barely won.

In 2004 McAuliffe is facing a venerable Northwest Side political institution, 34-year state Representative Ralph Capparelli (D-15). But McAuliffe has run another shrewdly perfect campaign, and he has succeeded in attaching a bundle of flaws to Capparelli. Expect McAuliffe to barely win again.

Herewith are my usually flawless predictions on key contests:

20th Illinois House District: Comparing 2002 to 2004, there are three striking differences and one striking similarity. First, Capparelli is a far better candidate than Bob Bugielski, a desultory campaigner who was blasted by McAuliffe as a tax hiker and who lived outside the district. Second, turnout in 2002 was 35,229; this year it probably will be 15 percent higher, close to 40,000. Who will these new voters back? And third, Alderman Bill Banks (36th), the powerful 36th Ward Democratic committeeman, who worked hard for Bugielski, is "neutral" this year.

The similarity is that McAuliffe has been relentless and imaginative in attacking Capparelli, cognizant of the fact that the 20th District tilts Democratic and that Capparelli would prevail unless McAuliffe gives voters a reason to abandon him. This McAuliffe has done -- with a vengeance.

Capparelli, unlike Bugielski, has carefully refrained from voting for any state tax increase. But McAuliffe's researchers found the next best thing: Over the past 15 years, Capparelli was absent on roll-call votes which, according to McAuliffe, raised taxes by $5 billion. McAuliffe termed Capparelli "missing in action." McAuliffe sent out a mailer detailing the "Top 10" reasons not to vote for Capparelli, including the fact that the Illinois Secretary of State Office's inspector general is investigating why a recent mailer to 6,000 seniors in the 20th District promoting driving seminars contained the phone number of Capparelli's campaign office. McAuliffe accused Capparelli of "playing it on the cheap" and using taxpayer money to promote his campaign. Both Capparelli and Secretary of State Jesse White profess ignorance as to how this occurred. Capparelli also has nearly $1 million in his campaign account, which McAuliffe accused him of spending a portion of his funds on gifts and junkets, calling it "taking care of Number One."

Capparelli has hit back, accusing McAuliffe of voting against low-cost drugs for seniors and of opposing family leave, but McAuliffe's broadsides have been far more devastating, seriously besmirching Capparelli's reputation.

Prior to 2002, McAuliffe and Capparelli had separate Northwest Side districts. The 2001 remap created the new 20th District, which took in only about 20 percent of Capparelli's old 13th District but more than 70 percent of McAuliffe's old 14th District. Capparelli was on the primary ballot for 41st Ward Democratic committeeman in 1992, 1996, 2000 and 2004, but the last time voters in most of the 41st Ward, the 36th Ward and Norwood Park Township saw his name on an election ballot was in 1980, when each House district had three representatives. The McAuliffe name -- first that of the late Roger McAuliffe, who served in the Illinois House from 1973 to 1996, and then his son Michael's -- has been on the ballot in most of the district every 2 years since the early 1970s.

That meant Capparelli had to re-introduce himself to a large block of voters. It is a political axiom that in any tough contest the winner is the candidate who first succeeds in negatively defining the opposition. McAuliffe negatively defined Bugielski in 2002, and he has negatively defined Capparelli before Capparelli defined himself.

In 2002 McAuliffe, age 40, spent at least 6 hours a day doing door-to-door campaigning. That engendered a great deal of visibility and goodwill. He's doing likewise in 2004. McAuliffe topped Bugielski by just 2,583 votes, getting 53.7 percent of the vote. This year his magic numbers are 53/55/44; that means he must win the 41st Ward with 53 percent of the vote, win the suburbs (Norridge, Harwood Heights and a few precincts in Niles north of Howard to Greenleaf) with 55 percent, and not get less than 44 percent in the 36th Ward. That would give him a winning margin of 400 votes. McAuliffe's numbers against Bugielski were 62.5/57/39. Here's how it plays out:

41st Ward: McAuliffe's 2002 precinct operation is still in place, but Capparelli's coverage is only sporadic. In 2002 Banks sent scores of his ward workers into the 41st Ward, to no avail. McAuliffe crushed Bugielski by 4,079 votes, and Banks blames Capparelli for that outcome, since Capparelli allegedly promised that he would win the ward for Bugielski. That's why Banks is "neutral" this time and why he won't send workers into the ward again. Turnout was 16,297 in 2002, and it will be up to around 18,800 this year. Capparelli will run much better than Bugielski in his home ward. If McAuliffe gets 53 percent of the total, he'll win the ward by 1,100 votes; my hunch is that he will get close to 55 percent, which is a margin of 1,880 votes.

36th Ward: Banks exerted himself mightily on Bugielski's behalf in 2002, and he delivered a 2,490-vote margin (61.1 percent) in his ward for his candidate. Because Banks is not exerting himself or his organization mightily for Capparelli, McAuliffe will gain votes. But will he pick up an extra 5 percent? Turnout in the ward will be around 12,900, and a 44 percent showing means McAuliffe loses the ward by 1,550 votes. If he comes out of the ward down by 2,000, he's in trouble districtwide, but don't expect that to happen.

Suburbs: McAuliffe has been endorsed by Earl Field, the Democratic mayor of Norridge, and by Norb Pabich, the independent mayor of Harwood Heights. "He delivers for us," Field said. Norwood Park Township Democratic Committeeman Robert Martwick is pushing hard for Capparelli. McAuliffe carried the suburban precincts by 991 votes (57.3 percent) in 2002, and there's no reason to suspect that he's any weaker after 2 more years of incumbency. Turnout was 6,813 last time, and it will be 7,900 this time. McAuliffe will get 55 percent of the vote, which gives him a margin of 850 votes.

My prediction: That translates into a districtwide McAuliffe victory by at least 400 votes, but maybe as high as 1,000. The Republican -- again -- has run a perfect campaign, this time against even tougher opposition.

17th Illinois House District: Incumbent Republican Beth Coulson, who won by just 666 votes in 2002, can empathize with the embattled Capparelli. She's being blasted in her Democratic-leaning Glenview-Skokie-Northfield district for committing a cardinal sin: She's a Republican. Her Democratic foe, Michele Bromberg, has sent out mailers with Coulson's picture next to that of Alan Keyes, implying that Coulson is some kind of right-wing nut. The Chicago Tribune has endorsed Coulson, but, like Capparelli, she's on the proverbial ropes. Like McAuliffe, Bloomberg has the better precinct operation, and she will identify and bring out her Democratic voters. My prediction: Bloomberg will win by at least 1,000 votes.

15th Illinois House District: This is the district that Capparelli currently represents, and the Democratic candidate is John D'Amico, a city worker who is the grandson of the late Alderman Tony Laurino and the nephew of current 39th Ward Alderman Marge Laurino. A House district centered on the 39th Ward was once held by D'Amico's uncle, Bill Laurino. Republican Bill Miceli is trying to peg D'Amico as being part and parcel of the "chronic corruption" of the "Laurino Dynasty," but he lacks the money and manpower to spread his message. My prediction: D'Amico will win with 58 percent of the vote.

U.S. Senator: Democrat Barack Obama's novelty and celebrity make him unbeatable. Recent polls show him garnering upwards of 65 percent of the vote in his contest against imported Republican Alan Keyes. Obama gets noticed, and as the winner of the March primary, and as the Democratic convention keynoter, Obama gets celebrated. The highlight of the recent Obama-Keyes debate was the Republican's assertion that he was the real African-American in the race, since he was "descended from slaves," while Obama's mother was white.

After Jack Ryan quit as the Republican nominee, Keyes, a Maryland resident who lost two Senate races in that state and who ran for president twice, was recruited. His job was to energize the party's conservative base, which he certainly has done -- which means he has a solid 25 percent of the vote.

My prediction: Chuck Percy won re-election in 1972 by 1,146,047 votes and carried all 102 Illinois counties, making him the state's champion Senate vote getter. Expect Obama to exceed that record, burying Keyes by 1.4 million votes. Keyes will go into the record books as both the worst defeated Illinois senatorial Senate and the first Marylander to lose in Illinois.

President: George Bush lost Illinois in 2000 by 569,605 votes, getting just 42.6 percent of the statewide vote, although he won 78 of 102 counties. Bush did better than his father, who lost Illinois in 1992 by 719,254 votes. My prediction: Democrat John Kerry will win Illinois by 725,000 votes.

8th U.S. House District (McHenry County and surrounding area): Phil Crane has been in Congress since 1969, and he is the longest-serving Republican. He represents a Republican area, but on Nov. 2 he will be defeated. Democrat Melissa Bean has blasted what she says is his ineffectual record (calling him a "seat warmer"), his incessant junketing and his invisibility in the district. Crane is attacking Bean as a liberal and for residing outside the district. Bush won the district by 131,967-98,664 over Al Gore in 2000, and Crane got 141,918 votes; in 2002 Crane topped Bean 95,275-70,626. This year Crane will run well behind the president. He is the classic example of a politician who has worn out his welcome. My prediction: Bean will win by 1,100 votes.