June 2, 2004
SHADOWS HANG OVER VETERAN CONGRESSMEN
ANALYSIS & OPINION BY RUSS STEWART
For four aging, veteran Illinois congressmen, shadows from the past and present hover darkly and, perhaps, ominously over their futures.
In the west suburban Cook/DuPage County 6th U.S. House District and in the northwest suburban Cook/Lake/McHenry County 8th U.S. House District, represented, respectively, by Republicans Henry Hyde and Phil Crane, the shadow of former House speaker Newt Gingrich lingers. Gingrich caused the enactment of several procedural reforms after the Republicans won a House majority in 1994, one of which was to mandate a 6-year term limit on the occupancy of a committee chairmanship.
That means Hyde, age 80, who as chairman of the House Judiciary Committee from 1995 to 2000 orchestrated Bill Clinton's 1999 impeachment trial, and chairman of the International Relations Committee since 2001, will be termed out of that post in 2007. Hyde could reclaim the Judiciary Committee chairmanship that year, but expect him to retire in 2006.
And that also means that Crane, age 73, chairman of the Trade Subcommittee of the tax-writing House Ways and Means Committee, will try to win the chairmanship of the full committee is 2007, after current chairman Bill Thomas of California is termed out. So Crane likely will run for re-election in 2006.
In both the Southwest Side Chicago and southwest suburban 3rd District, represented by Democrat Bill Lipinski, and in the far south and west suburban (western DuPage, Kendall, Kane, DeKalb, Lee, Whiteside and Henry counties) 14th District, represented by Gingrich's successor, House Speaker Denny Hastert, the shadow of Iraq and the fate of President George Bush looms large.
If Bush wins re-election in 2004, and if the Republicans retain their House majority, then Hastert, age 62, will retire in 2006, after 8 years as speaker. He likely will conclude that, after 2 more years of a Bush Administration, the Democrats will benefit from a historically normal voter reaction against the in party and win control of the U.S. House and Senate in 2006.
However, if Bush loses, Democrat John Kerry becomes president, and Hastert remains speaker, then 2006 likely will be a Republican year, with Hastert keeping his majority and keeping his speakership for several more terms.
As for Lipinski, a former Chicago alderman (1975-83) and the 23rd Ward Democratic committeeman since 1975, a continued House Republican majority coupled with a Bush loss could prompt his exodus. Lipinski, age 66, is the third-ranking Democrat on the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, which oversees and funds highway, railroad and airport operations and construction. Lipinski is the ranking Democrat on the Highways, Transit and Pipelines Subcommittee. If Democrats win a House majority in 2004 or in 2006 (presuming Bush is re-elected), Lipinski will become a subcommittee chairman and will be in a position to exert a powerful influence on Chicago-related projects.
However, if Kerry wins but Republicans keep control of the House, then Lipinski won't be a subcommittee chairman, and he probably won't be after the 2006 elections. Rumors are rampant that Lipinski is contemplating taking the prospective chief executive officer job at the RTA.
Here's a look at each congressional district:
6th District: Of the 21 Republicans on the Judiciary Committee who managed the Clinton impeachment, only one was defeated in 2000, but a few others, including Hyde, saw their winning margins diminished. Hyde was first elected in 1974. In 1998 he was re-elected with 67.3 percent of the vote, winning 111,603-49,906. In 2000 his share of the vote dropped to just 58.9 percent, winning 133,327-92,880. In 2002 he bounced back to normalcy, getting 65.1 percent of the vote and winning 113,174-60,698.
Hyde's odyssey to Washington is noteworthy. Back in 1962 he lived in Wildwood on the Northwest Side, and he ran for Congress against Roman Pucinski. He lost, but he came back to win an Illinois House seat in 1966, and he became the House majority leader in 1969. But Hyde was no fan of Governor Dick Ogilvie, who backed Roger McAuliffe against him Hyde in the 1972 primary, and Hyde lost. Hyde then moved to an Elmwood Park-based district after the incumbent resigned his nomination, and ran and won in 1972. But, thereafter, his power in Springfield was minimal. In 1974 he moved to Park Ridge and beat Ed Hanrahan for an open congressional seat. He has since moved to Wood Dale, in DuPage County.
When Hyde was first elected, the 6th District comprised only Cook County's western suburbs, running from Cicero on the south to Park Ridge on the north. Remaps after the 1980, 1990 and 2000 censuses pushed Hyde westward, so that the current 6th takes in more than half of DuPage County, and only a small portion of Cook County (Des Plaines, Elk Grove and Streamwood). The DuPage area extends from Bensenville and Wood Dale in the northeast to as far west as Wheaton.
A long line is forming to succeed Hyde, among them being DuPage County Board Chairman Bob Schillerstrom, board member Brien Sheehan and state Senators Dan Cronin, Steve Rauschenberger and Peter Roskam. Rauschenberger made a credible bid for the 2002 Republican U.S. Senate nomination. This much is certain: A Republican will replace Hyde.
8th District: Crane is the most senior Republican in the House, having been elected in a 1969 special election to succeed Don Rumsfeld, who resigned to become White House chief of staff. Crane's geographic odyssey is much like Hyde's. When he was first elected, his district took in the North Shore. Then it was remapped westward, and now it encompasses the west half of Lake County, the east half of McHenry County and the Cook County suburbs of Schaumburg, Palatine, Barrington and Inverness. Crane originally lived in Winnetka, then moved to Mount Prospect, and now is in Wauconda.
At one time, Crane was poised to become a conservative superstar. He spoke around the nation in the 1970s and wrote books, but his 1980 presidential campaign was a flop. He got on the Ways and Means Committee early in his career, but he was never perceived as attentive to arcane tax issues. In 2000 Thomas, junior in seniority to Crane, got the support of more congressmen in a caucus vote and became chairman. Crane may try again in 2006.
Back home, Crane's age and eroding campaign skills are evident. His re-election shares have dropped from 68.6 percent in 1998 to 60.1 percent in 2000 to 57.4 percent in 2002. His 2002 Democratic foe, Melissa Bean, is running again in 2004. Republicans are concerned but not yet nervous about Crane's prospects in a district won by President George Bush with 56 percent of the vote in 2000. Crane won the 2004 primary against an under-funded and unknown opponent with 68.9 percent.
A bunch of Republicans, including newly elected Republican county chairman Gary Skoien, state Representative Mark Beaubien and 1996 U.S. Senate candidate Al Salvi, are eyeing the seat. But the most formidable is Democrat Jack Franks, a McHenry state representative. Local Republicans want Crane to retire in 2006.
3rd District: This was once one of three Chicago "Polish" districts, and it was nestled entirely on the Southwest Side until the 1980s. It has had just three congressmen since 1950: John Klucynski (who was chairman of the Transportation Subcommittee when he died in 1975), John Fary and Lipinski, who beat Fary in the 1982 primary. The district is now almost 75 percent suburban, containing just the 23rd and 13th wards and parts of the 19th and 11th wards in Chicago; it takes in all the southwest Cook County suburbs from Berwyn to Bridgeview.
A Republican held Lipinski to just 54.2 percent of the vote in 1994, but since then Lipinski has won re-election with better than 70 percent. Lipinski, who votes very conservatively on social issues, is running for re-election in 2004, but rumors abound that he could resign in 2005. His choice to succeed him would surely be his son, Dan Lipinski, a political science professor at the University of Tennessee; but that might not be politically practical, so Lipinski, if he quit, could back his alderman, Mike Zalewski (23rd), or his chief of staff, Jerry Hurckes. But the Bridgeport-based 11th Ward Committeeman John Daley might have other ideas. He might back his alderman, James Balcer. So if Lipinski hangs it up, a major Chicago power struggle will occur in this largely suburban district.
14th District: Hastert, a former Yorkville High School wrestling coach, has a knack for being in the right place at the right time. When the area Republican congressman died in 1986, Hastert, then a state representative, was named the nominee. When Gingrich resigned as speaker in 1999, and when his certain successor, Bob Livingston, was accused of adultery, Hastert was everybody's favorite compromise candidate. Hastert has been an efficient and effective speaker, keeping his party united and bringing back loads of "pork" appropriations for Illinois projects.
After being a powerful speaker, Hastert will surely not want to be a powerless minority leader, so expect him to retire as soon as he surmises that the House Republican majority will become a minority.