March 31, 2004
RYAN'S WEAK SHOWING BODES ILL VERSUS OBAMA
Jack Ryan won the Republican senatorial primary with an unimpressive 35.7 percent. He enters the November contest against Barack Obama with some major impediments. First, the Republican base is not energized. Second, President Bush will lose Illinois by more than 500,000. Third, Obama has no obvious flaws, and his legislative record is mixed, though largely liberal. And fourth, Ryan's investment-broker-to-school-teacher life-story is neutralized by Obama's mixed-race birth to Harvard to University of Chicago law school professor life-story. Ryan needs over 500,000 Kerry voters to pick him over Obama. Ryan will run well Downstate, but he needs a "silver bullet" on some salient issue to turn voters away from Obama. Full Article...
March 24, 2004
"DEMOCRATIC WING" FUELS OBAMA'S SENATE TRIUMPH
Barack Obama's victory is a triumph for the "Democratic wing of the Democratic Party" -- the liberals and the implacable Bush-haters. But that win should not be misinterpreted. The 2004 Obama vote is almost identical to the 1992 Braun vote. Obama won 52.7%, while Braun won 38.3%. The difference: Fewer Democrats are voting, but those that are voting are much more liberal than a decade ago. Obama had a huge black vote, but also got heavy support among whites in the suburbs and collar counties. He will be tough to beat in November. Full Article...
March 17, 2004
DESPITE PLETHORA OF TAD'S, DALEY REMAINS POPULAR
TADs -- temporary adverse developments -- may sting, but they don't kill. Now completing its 15th year, the Daley Administration and Mayor Rich Daley have suffered the usual array of TADs, but no major personal or political scandals. The Hired Truck Program is the latest TAD, and there is no question that Daley takes good care of his family and friends. But as long as city services are delivered, schools are adequate, taxes are bearable, and crime is controlled, the public will tolerate a bit of favoritism. Daley has become an icon, and is even loveable at times. He'll be mayor for as long as he desires. Full Article...
March 10, 2004
HULL'S "COLLAPSE" HAS SENATORIAL PRECEDENT
Never explain. Never apologize. Those are cardinal rules of politics. And $24-Million-Dollar-Man Blair Hull, whose Senate campaign is sinking like a rock, is trying to explain why, as an outspoken supporter of feminist causes, he allegedly threatened to kill his wife, and did kick her. Barack Obama is the chief beneficiary in Chicago of Hull's collapse, as is Dan Hynes, who picks up a lot of Hull's shaky Downstate support. Expect a Obama-Hynes photo-finish in the Democratic primary, with the odds slightly favoring Obama. Read this article for Russ Stewart's March 16 predictions. Full Article...
March 3, 2004
FATE, LUCK, BAGGAGE AFFECT JUDGES RACE
Instead of just the usual bunch of unknown, non-descript lawyers, the 10th subcircuit features a Battle of Titans, with Democrat-turned-Republican-turned-Democrat Aurie Pucinski running for judge, and opposed by the slated Democrat Jim McGing, as well as by appointed Judge Carolyn Quinn. Pucinski is much-detested, and must overcome the "turncoat" charge; McGing, who works for Sheriff Sheahan, is backed by all the Democratic committeemen; Quinn moved into the district to run. Expect a McGing-Pucinski photo-finish. In the other race, with a bunch of non-entities, Clare McWilliams will win. In the 45th Ward committeeman's race, Tom Lyons will triumph, but not by a huge margin. Full Article...
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