June 25, 2003
FLOOD OF "RWGS" MEAN AVALANCHE OF SENATE ADS

ANALYSIS & OPINION BY RUSS STEWART

Legendary showman P.T. Barnum once estimated that there was a sucker born every minute. By sucker, Barnum meant somebody who could be happily and willingly fleeced out of his money by a shrewd operator.

At this early date, although the 2004 campaign for retiring Illinois U.S. Senator Peter Fitzgerald's seat is still in an embryonic stage, four words sum up the contest: "Let The Fleecing Begin."

For the major electronic media, especially the Chicago-area television stations but also radio, cable TV and the Internet, as well as for a slew of high-priced media and campaign consultants and even for direct-mail specialists, the parade of rich suckers seeking their respective parties' Senate nomination in 2004 will be a financial bonanza beyond belief. Statewide candidates in 2002 spent more than $30 million in aggregate, with about $25 million going to the electronic and print media. With 18 or more candidates expected to seek Fitzgerald's seat, 2004 will set a new record, with more than $25 million spent for the March primary and another $15 million spent for the November election.

That total expenditure translates into a saturation level of gross rating points, which means that the average listener or viewer will hear or see not fewer than three ads per day for some U.S. Senate candidate during the January-March and September-October periods.

Nine Democrats have already announced for or are expected to run for senator, including two "rich white guys," former Chicago investment banker Blair Hull, who has pledged to spend $40 million of his $530 million fortune (gained when he sold his brokerage firm to Goldman Sachs in 1999) on his campaign, and Downstate attorney John Simmons, who has promised to spend at least $15 million, or "as much as it takes," to win. Also in the race are former Chicago schools chief Board of Education president Gery Chico, who raised $1,225,000 through March 31, and state Comptroller Dan Hynes, who raised $801,000 through that date.

Back in the money-raising pack are African-American state Senator Barack Obama, with $356,000, and Joyce Washington, a black health consultant, with $170,000. No report was filed by Cook County Treasurer Maria Pappas, who has not yet announced or begun raising money, or Metamora Mayor Matt O'Shea. Lieutenant Governor Pat Quinn also is expected to enter the race.

Hull, who barely registers in any polls, has already hired staff, including a $20,000-a-month campaign manager whose claim to fame is that he ran Mark Shriver's losing congressional campaign in Maryland. Hull also reportedly has 18 staffers and 10 consultants and pollsters, and he rents a $5,500-a-month campaign headquarters on trendy North Michigan Avenue. If there were a hundred more candidates like Hull, graduate schools would begin giving MBAs in campaign management.

The Republican field is a bit more diverse, and much more obscure. Since former governor Jim Edgar opted not to run, Republicans have been decidedly pessimistic about their prospects of retaining Fitzgerald's seat. Among the announced or potential candidates are a half-dozen "rich white guys," but there also is a "rich white woman," a "rich Indian guy" and a whole bunch of "not rich white guys."

The good news for the Republicans is that if the Democrats nominate Obama, the right "rich white guy" or "rich white woman" could win. The bad news is that, in a primary with a multiplicity of candidates, a social conservative who opposes abortion, gun control and gay rights could win, and such a candidate would be unable to beat even an underfunded black opponent like Obama. If a white candidate wins the Democratic primary, the likelihood of a Republican victory in the election would be nonexistent.

Here's a breakdown of the Republican field, with the richest first:

	*Chirinjeev Kathuria, age 38, an Oak Brook doctor and millionaire businessman who has made his fortune by developing businesses involved in diagnostic imaging, building the space station and Internet access in India. He is a native of New Delhi, but he has lived in DuPage County since childhood. Kathuria is a Sikh, he wears a beard and a turban, and he plans to spend $15 million of his own money to win. His candidacy is a novelty, and he will get some votes, but not enough to even come close.
	*Jack Ryan, age 43, a North Shore investment baker who worked for Goldman Sachs and who retired to teach at Hales Franciscan High School. He flirted with running for senator or secretary of state in 2002. Ryan is the "Love Boat" candidate, remarking about the "love in the room" when he announced and promising, as senator, to "seek the happiness of others." Ryan will run as the "candidate who can win," and he will try to avoid the abortion/gay rights/gun control quagmire.  By pledging to spend $6 million of his fortune and to raise another $9 million, Ryan made a bunch of media executives and campaign consultants deliriously happy. If money is "Happy Jack's" edge, his surname is his nemesis. His name probably cost him about 100,000 votes in 2002, as voters confused him with former governor George Ryan, who was mired in the scandal involving the Secretary of State's Office.
	*Andy McKenna, age 46, an executive with Schwarz Paper Company in Morton Grove. McKenna is a social conservative, and he is close to the conservative network captained by Jack Roeser, the wealthy suburban businessman who ran against Edgar in the 1994 primary, getting 173,742 votes (24.9 percent). McKenna will self-fund to the tune of at least $1 million, but he is relying on Roeser's connections to give him a statewide base.
	*Jim Oberweis, age 56, an Aurora executive with his family's dairy business. Oberweis ran for the Republican Senate nomination in 2002, when he spent close to $1 million and got 259,515 votes (31.5 percent). He was backed by U.S. House Speaker Denny Hastert and by a flock of politicians in an around the Kane-Kendall-DeKalb county area. Oberweis has pledged to spend more than a million dollars in 2004, and if he gets a solid vote from his base, he could win.
	*Corrine Wood, age 49, a one-term state representative from Lake Forest who was tapped by George Ryan to be his lieutenant governor candidate in 1998. Wood ran for governor in 2002, finishing third with 246,825 votes (26.9 percent), but she ran well in the northern suburbs. Her husband, Paul, is an investment manager, and the couple reported earning $2.9 million in 2001, with Corrine Wood reporting $2.6 million in income from investments in a blind trust. The Woods contributed more than $5.2 million to her 2002 race.   As a loser that year, Wood doesn't have much credibility. Many Republicans blame her for injecting abortion into the campaign, which didn't help Jim Ryan in the election. But as the only woman running in 2004, she will be a major factor, and if she spends another $5 million and the race is clogged with socially conservative "rich white guys," she could win.
	*Dave Ransburg, the mayor of Peoria, who is wealthy and pro-abortion rights. Even though he is the only Downstate candidate, he won't hold much appeal for Downstate social conservatives.
	*John Cox, age 47, a Glenview lawyer who lost primary races for Congress in 2000 and for senator in 2002. He finished third with 187,706 votes (22.8 percent) last year. Cox is an unabashed social conservative, but his past spending got him nowhere. He finished fifth in 2000, getting just 10 percent of the vote. Cox said that he will spend "less than a million" in 2004.
	*Steve Rauschenberger, age 48, an Elgin-area state senator since 1993, a tough fiscal conservative and former Senate Appropriations Committee chairman, and a successful retail furniture businessman. His Senate term runs through 2006, so a 2004 race is a no-risk proposition. He could self-fund up to $1 million, and he would depend on his fellow state senators to help.

Other potential candidates -- all of whom are "not rich white guys" -- include RTA chairman Tom McCracken, retired U.S. Air Force major general John Borling of Rockford, DuPage County Board chairman Bob Schillerstrom, 2002 Senate candidate Jim Durkin (who got just 37 percent of the vote against Democratic incumbent Dick Durbin), former state senator and 2002 governor candidate Pat O'Malley (an outspoken social conservative who got 260,860 votes, finishing second with 28.4 percent), and Illinois Supreme Court Justice Bob Thomas, a former Chicago Bears place-kicker.

Each party's field is likely to top off at 10 -- an unprecedented glut of contenders by Illinois standards. The early outlook: Over the past 40 years, the  Republican "establishment" candidate has prevailed in primaries, as Jim Ryan proved in 2002, getting 44.7 percent of the vote, but there is a definite socially conservative vote (like O'Malley's 28.4 percent in 2002) and a definite moderate-female gender vote (like Wood's 26.9 percent that year).

The hard-core socially conservative candidates, McKenna, Cox, O'Malley and Rauschenberger, will split the Hard Right's 30 percent of the vote. Wood will be the only outspokenly pro-abortion rights candidate and the only woman, and she is worth at least 25 percent. The "establishment" eventually will coalesce behind Oberweis, Thomas, Ransburg or Ryan. Right now, make Oberweis the favorite, but Ransburg or Thomas could quickly eclipse him and take the nomination.