June 11, 2003
"ROAD MAP" UNFOLDS FOR LOCAL 2004 ELECTION
ANALYSIS & OPINION BY RUSS STEWART
"Road maps" seem to be the current fixation of international politicians and of the news media. And while a "road map" to the 2004 Democratic primary for clerk of the Cook County Circuit Court and for two Northwest Side Illinois House seats is not quite as exalted as that of finding peace in the Middle East, it's still newsworthy.
After all, voters will be overjoyed to know that the 2004 election season commences in just 3 months. By mid-September, candidates can begin circulating their nominating petitions. Filing occurs in 6 months, in mid-December, and the primary is just 9 months away, on March 16.
Here's the preliminary "road map" to the candidates and controversies which have surfaced -- or soon will -- in the 2004 Democratic primary:
Clerk of the Cook County Circuit Court: Incumbent Dorothy Brown is seeking a second term, and she will be opposed by retired county judge Jerome Orbach. Although Brown is black and Orbach is white, race will not be a dominant factor in the contest, but racial turnout will.
Brown won the 2000 Democratic primary with less than a majority of the vote, getting 216,631 votes (48.4 percent) but easily topping her three white opponents, Alderman Pat Levar, who got 123,309 votes (27.5 percent), Metropolitan Water Reclamation Commissioner Pat Young, who got 56,841 votes (12.8 percent), and Alderman Joe Moore, who got 50,665 votes (11.3 percent).
The advantage for Brown going into 2004 is that her office has not been besmirched by any scandal, which shifts the burden to Orbach, who must give voters a reason to oust her, by showing her or her office's incompetence. The advantages for Orbach are that Brown has not made herself well known, which means that he can run a negative campaign and define her to voters, and that he likely will be her only white opponent. That means Brown must be up on radio and TV early with ads touting her accomplishments, before Orbach begins blasting her.
One major problem for Brown is the comparative lateness of the primary. By March 16 no fewer than 33 states will already have held their presidential primary or caucus, and the identity of the Democratic nominee will be apparent. Thus, Illinoisans will have minimal incentive to vote.
The early outlook: Brown has spent the past 4 years solidifying her base among black voters, but she has done little to elevate her recognition among white voters, especially on the Northwest and Southwest sides and in the suburbs. The Democratic U.S. Senate primary will encourage a high turnout among white voters, especially in Cook County, but state Senator Barack Obama, if he is running strongly in the polls in the Senate race, should motivate black voters, thereby aiding Brown. Right now, Brown's chances or renomination are only slightly better then 50/50.
20th House District: For more than 30 years there has been a non-aggression pact between the Republican "McAuliffe Clan" and the Democratic "Cullerton Clan," initially in the 38th Ward and the old 14th Illinois House District and later in the 41st Ward and the 13th and 14th districts. The late state Representative Roger McAuliffe, who served from 1973 to 1996, never interfered with the Cullertons' dominance in the 38th Ward (where the late Tom Cullerton was alderman and where his daughter, Patty Jo Cullerton, is the Democratic committeeman), and the Cullertons never tried to defeat McAuliffe. McAuliffe and state Representative Ralph Capparelli had a similar pact: Neither aided the opponent of the other, and Capparelli did nothing to block McAuliffe's protege, Brian Doherty, when he beat longtime Capparelli antagonist Roman Pucinski for 41st Ward alderman in 1991. Since then, Capparelli, the 41st Ward Democratic committeeman, has not tried to oust Doherty.
There was a proverbial bump in the road in 1996, when Roger McAuliffe died and was replaced by his son, Mike McAuliffe. Capparelli backed Tom Needham, who came within 1,895 votes of beating McAuliffe, and the Doherty-McAuliffe forces ran Peter Callaghan against Capparelli, keeping Capparelli's winning percentage to just 58.5.
The McAuliffe-Doherty/Capparelli-Cullerton pact was thereafter reinstated, but it was tested in 2002 when Capparelli, after the Democratic-designed legislative remap, ran in the 15th House district (which includes Niles, Morton Grove and the 39th Ward and runs south to Addison-Kostner and east to Peterson-California). Capparelli left the new 20th District, where he resided, to McAuliffe and fellow Democratic incumbent Bob Bugielski, Capparelli's good buddy, who was sponsored out of the 36th Ward, run by Alderman/Committeeman Bill Banks.
Banks had no non-aggression pact with the McAuliffe/Doherty forces, and Capparelli pledged to aid Bugielski, thereby breaching his part of the pact. The result: McAuliffe clobbered Bugielski in 2002, and Doherty was re-elected alderman in 2003. Capparelli failed to move into the 15th District, so he can't run for another term there in 2004. Now Capparelli is making noises that he will run against McAuliffe in 2004 in the 20th District, where both reside.
In response, Republicans in Springfield are making noises that, if Capparelli doesn't retire, thereby giving McAuliffe a free pass to re-election in 2004, they will unleash a torrent of money into the now-open 15th District, find a viable Republican contender, and tar the presumed Democratic nominee, city water department foreman John D'Amico Jr., with the voluminous "sins" of his family.
D'Amico is the nephew of Alderman Marge Laurino (39th) and the grandson of the late Alderman Tony Laurino (39th). Allegations of dynastic succession didn't hurt Marge Laurino in her 1995 campaign to succeed her father, but it did hurt her husband, 39th Ward Democratic Committeemen Randy Barnette, when he ran for state senator in 1998.
Capparelli spent roughly $200,000 on his 2002 15th District campaign, and he beat Republican Bill Miceli, who spent less than $10,000, by 18,965-8,938, a 68 percent win. Miceli is set to run again, but the party is looking for other possible contenders.
Tony Laurino resigned as alderman in 1994, and Marge Laurino was named by Mayor Richard Daley to replace him. At that time, Tony Laurino was under indictment on eight counts of mail fraud and defrauding the City of Chicago, allegedly by putting 35 family members, friends and Democratic precinct captains in "no-show" jobs for the City Council Traffic Committee, which he chaired. Laurino died before his trial, but his daughter, Marie D'Amico, pleaded guilty in 1994 and was sentenced to 10 months in prison for collecting more than $100,000 in city and county wages for "no-show" jobs. Her husband, John D'Amico, a city Department of Streets and Sanitation deputy commissioner, pleaded guilty in 1995 and was sentenced to 2 years in prison for aiding his wife's "no-show" scheme, for securing other "no-show" jobs, and for taking kickbacks from those whom he landed on the payroll. John D'Amico Jr. is their son. Tony Laurino's wife, Bonnie, and stepdaughter, Christine Boyar, also were sentenced. Overall, the alderman put 10 members of the "Laurino Clan" on the city or county payroll, which, when added to other "no-show" friends and precinct captains, cost the taxpayers $1.8 million over 30 years.
According to Springfield sources, the Republicans' threat to the Democrats is quite concise: Try to take out McAuliffe, and we will smear D'Amico with the sins of his parents, grandfather and in-laws. Event though an onslaught against the "Laurino Dynasty" never worked in the past, and the misdeeds of Anthony Laurino are now ancient history, an aggressive Republican challenger, financed with $300,000 of Springfield Republican cash, could make D'Amico and the Springfield Democrats spend big bucks to hold the 15th District. And D'Amico, after winning, would find his reputation tattered.
So the putative deal is this: Capparelli doesn't run in the 20th District, on the pretext of getting a comfy state job some time during 2003 and resigning so as to allow D'Amico to be appointed to his 15th District seat, and Banks' organization doesn't push somebody in the 20th District in 2004, which would thereby ensure McAuliffe's re-election. If that occurs, the Republicans will roll over and let D'Amico win the 15th District . . . and the Northwest Side's enduring non-aggression pact will have expanded to include McAuliffe/Doherty, the Laurinos, Banks and the 36th Ward, and Capparelli.
If, however, Capparelli, with a campaign fund of more than $1 million, decides to take on McAuliffe, then the pact is defunct, and the dirt will fly fast and furious on the Northwest Side in 2004.