April 16, 2003
WILL IRAQI VICTORY CONVERT JEWS TO GOP?
ANALYSIS & OPINION BY RUSS STEWART
Jewish voters have long been, along with black voters, the most loyal cogs in the Democratic Party's electoral base, habitually voting in overwhelming numbers for Democratic candidates for all offices. In 2000 an estimated 80 percent of Jewish voters backed Al Gore over George Bush.
But Jewish voters also have a great affinity for Israel, and the Bush Administration's successful "Operation Iraqi Freedom" has been to the enormous benefit of Israel by removing Iraq as a potential threat to Israel's security. It also has sent a clear message to the Arab world that America, Israel's steadfast ally, is fearsome, not feeble. Prior to the U.S. invasion of Iraq, many in the Arab/Muslim axis detested America for backing Israel but contemptuously believed that America lacked the fortitude to protect its own, or Israel's, interests. That perception has evaporated.
When Palestinian suicide bombers kill Israeli Jews, the Israelis retaliate by killing Arabs. This swift and sure retribution is reviled but respected by Arabs. It is a reality which, coupled with swift victories in three wars in the last half-century, has helped to preserve Israel for the past 54 years. And many Jews in America understand that Israel survives by being ruthless and unforgiving, not reasonable or accomodating.
But until the invasion of Iraq, America, Israel's protector, was viewed skeptically by the Arab world. Would the United States actually use its troops for a regime change? The 1991 Gulf War expelled Saddam's invaders from Kuwait, but it didn't remove him from Baghdad. That was viewed by the Arabs as American weakness. And the current Bush Administration's decision to pursue a United Nations sanction prior to ousting Saddam, an undisputed tyrant and butcher, was thought by many Arabs to be further proof of lack of American resolve.
And then there was the matter of so-called "world opinion." The French have a huge African Arab/Muslim population, and they secure a fifth of their oil from Iraq. So, of course, they opposed an American invasion. The Germans have a huge Turkish minority, and Gerhard Schroeder, the prime minister, used anti-Americanism as an issue in his 2002 re-election campaign, so he opposed the invasion. But Great Britain, Spain, Italy and all the formerly communist Eastern European countries backed America.
And then there were the faint of heart, the premature defeatists, in the streets and in Congress, especially among Democrats, who wanted more "diplomacy" and no war. Some in the media prophesized a "quagmire" in Iraq. Fears of terrorist attacks on America, of the magnitude of the Sept. 11 World Trade Center attack, were rampant. An armada of suicide bombers was expected to be unleashed, in both America and Israel. Saddam's use of chemical, biological and even nuclear weapons on the invading troops was anticipated. The torching of Iraq's oil fields was thought imminent, with a resultant spike in oil and gas prices. The launching of Scud missiles from western Iraq on Israel was deemed to be a foregone conclusion. And the actual U.S. incursion into Baghdad was projected to be a bloody morass, with pro-Saddam soldiers resisting vigorously, on a block-by-block basis, with huge loss of life.
But each and every presumption has been wrong to date: no terrorist attacks thus far; no surge of suicide bombers in Israel or elsewhere; no chemical weapons used; no huge civilian or military death toll; no "quagmire" in Baghdad. And the war was brilliantly executed, with superb surgical strikes. Now we hear that we may have "won the war" but that we could "lose the peace." What total garbage. America exercised its power and excised a tyrant, and it can now set up a Muslim democracy in the Middle East.
The Arab dictatorships and royalty in the region stay in power by fomenting and propagating animosity among their populace, most of whom live in abject poverty, toward Israel and the United States. Since the vast bulk of each country's wealth is concentrated in the hands of less than 2 percent of the population, those who govern need to direct their population's discontent and wrath elsewhere, and not at their government or ruling class.
The entire raison d'etre of the Palestine Liberation Organization is hatred of Israel and the Jews. They don't want to negotiate with Israel, they want to exterminate Israel. And what the Iraq war has demonstrated is that America has the capability and resolve to exterminate them, or any other Arab regime, if America so chooses. Bush supports a Palestine homeland, but only on the condition that Israel's security is respected and its existence is undisputed. The Iraq war may now make that achievable, if done quickly.
With Democratic presidential candidates Al Sharpton, Carol Moseley-Braun, Dennis Kucinich and Howard Dean outspokenly opposed to the Iraq war, with presidential candidate John Kerry advocating a "regime change" in Washington, and with Senate Democratic leader Tom Daschle lambasting Bush for a "failure of diplomacy," how will Jewish voters react? A recent Quinnipiac University poll found Jewish voters support the Iraq war by 56-35 percent.
A majority of the non-Jewish liberal Democratic base is anti-war on Iraq and virulent in its hatred of Bush. Presidential contenders Joe Lieberman (who is Jewish), Dick Gephardt and John Edwards, all of whom supported the congressional resolution authorizing force in Iraq, and all of whom supposedly are pro-Israel, have been judiciously mum on where credit goes for the success of the Iraqi conflict. They don't want to credit Bush. With the war won, the erstwhile foes will try ignore their comments, but the straddlers will have a hard time explaining their equivocation to both Jewish and anti-war voters. The Bush Administration's Middle East policies have been distinctly pro-Israel, so any Democratic criticism of the Iraq war can be construed as being anti-Israel.
At a recent conference of the influential American-Israel Public Affairs Committee, the most visible pro-Israel lobby in Washington, a parade of Republicans, including Illinois U.S. Representative Mark Kirk (R-10), sounded the theme that Israel is hated not because it's a Jewish state, but because it's a democracy, that the solution to the Arab-Israeli conflict is the introduction of democracy and capitalism in the Arab countries, and that the place to start is in Iraq. Their argument was that it is the Republicans, not the Democrats, who are the most tenacious in their support of Israel, and that the Democrats cannot be trusted on that issue, or on any national defense issue.
According to the 2000 census, the Jewish population in the United States is 5,700,000 today, or 2 percent of the U.S. population. In 1937, Jews made up 4 percent of the country's population. According to the American Jewish Yearbook, the Jewish intermarriage rate has been over 50 percent in the last 20 years, prompting a significant weakening of Jewish identity. But a weakening of identity does not undermine Jewish political clout, with affluent Jews providing contributions to liberal Democratic candidates.
A 2001 poll by the Hebrew University of Jerusalem found that 47 percent of American Jews thought that "commitment to social equality" was the most important element of their identity, with only 13 percent ranking "support for Israel" topmost. Will that change now? Will the anti-Israel, pro-Palestine stance of many Democrats, especially minorities, coupled with the Bush Administration's pro-Israel posture, push Jewish voters into the Republican camp? Democrats like Jesse Jackson, so-called champions of "social equality," have publicly supported and associated with Yassir Arafat and have backed a Palestinian homeland.
Some Republicans have drawn substantial Jewish support: Rudy Giuliani for New York mayor in 1993 and 1997, Mike Bloomberg for New York mayor in 2001, Rick Lazio for senator in 2000 against Hillary Clinton, George Pataki for New York governor. In Florida, George Bush got 35 percent of the Jewish vote in 2000, well above his national average, and that helped him win the presidency. In 2002 Jeb Bush, Florida's governor, got 44 percent of the Jewish vote in his re-election race.
But it all comes down to this: Do Jews vote their self-proclaimed ancestral roots, or do they vote for "social justice"? The Republican argument is that it's about time for Jewish voters to back the party that supports the Jewish homeland, rather than support the party that is dominated by the minorities that support the Palestinian homeland and oppose protecting Israel -- and that "social justice" is inimical to American Jewish interests.
My prediction: 2004 will be the beginning of the end of blind Jewish allegiance to the Democratic Party.