April 9, 2003
2004 CLERK'S RACE MAY IMPACT DALEY SUCCESSION
ANALYSIS & OPINION BY RUSS STEWART
Some would term it the final gasp of the "Vrdolyak 29" era. Others would call it the opening skirmish of the 2007 Chicago mayoral race, when incumbent Rich Daley may retire. Regardless of who views what from where, the 2004 Democratic primary for clerk of the Cook County Circuit Court, an office with 2,300 jobs, has major political ramifications.
According to reliable sources, Cook County Associate Judge Jerome Orbach is set to announce his candidacy on May 1 for the clerk's office, a post now held by Dorothy Brown, who was elected in 2000. Orbach retires on that date, and he has scheduled a retirement party in Wilmette at which he is expected to announce his candidacy.
Brown, who is black, is considered the second most viable black contender for the Chicago mayoralty when Daley retires, in 2007 or later. The most viable black contender would be U.S. Representative Jesse Jackson Jr. Thus, any assault on Brown carries significant racial and political implications: If Orbach upsets Brown, then he eliminates a very conspicuous black aspirant for mayor; however, if Brown beats Orbach convincingly, then she surges to almost equal stature with Jackson as the city's "Great Black Hope" for the mayoralty.
And then there's the predicament of Daley, who is notoriously enigmatic about whom he supports for major offices. Does Daley back a Brown foe in 2004, risking the wrath of black politicians and some of the black community? And if a Daley-backed candidate loses to Brown, is that not a major humiliation for the mayor, and a major boost to Brown's mayoral hopes? The word is that Daley has not encouraged Orbach to run, is not encouraging anybody to run, and will not back anybody against Brown.
Orbach, age 56, has great credibility and knowledge to comment on the efficiency of the clerk's office, as he has been a judge, sitting in the 2nd District (which includes all of Cook County's north suburbs) since 1988. He can claim that his personal knowledge of the flaws of the courtroom clerks and of the clerking system in general, gleaned from having been on the bench for 15 years, would enable him to enact reforms. But he also has gigantic baggage: Orbach, who is Jewish, was a Chicago alderman from 1983 to 1987, and he was the 46th Ward Democratic committeeman from 1984 to 1988. During that period, when Harold Washington was mayor, Orbach voted consistently with the "Vrdolyak 29" majority in the City Council on procedural and budget matters.
But Orbach was no social conservative. He backed a gay rights measure, and he supported increased funding for AIDS research. He opposed night games and lighting at Wrigley Field. But on economic matters, Orbach was clearly aligned with the "haves" and against the "have nots" in Uptown's continuing cultural and economic war. Orbach vigorously pursued a strategy of voting precincts dry, particularly along Broadway and Clark, home to dozens of "skid row" taverns, and he also encouraged renovation of dilapidated and vacant buildings. The response of Slim Coleman and his Heart of Uptown minions -- a coalition of the "have nots" -- was that Orbach was trying to purge the 46th Ward of its poor people and senior citizens. And Coleman was right: Making the ward less poor and less blighted meant making Coleman a has-been and getting more property on the tax-paying rolls.
Orbach broke into politics as an aide to Ralph Axelrod, who became the 46th Ward alderman in 1977 after the resignation of incumbent Chris Cohen. Axelrod became Democratic committeeman in 1972, succeeding Joe Gill, who had held the job, and who had run the ward with an iron fist, since 1922. Axelrod won the 1977 special aldermanic election over Coleman's candidate, Helen Shiller, by just over 1,000 votes. Shiller ran again in 1979, and Axelrod won by 247 votes. Clearly, the "haves" were having a problem.
In 1980 Orbach showed a distinct lack of gratitude and challenged Axelrod for committeeman, losing by four votes; even the "haves" were having misgivings about Axelrod. In 1982 Vrdolyak, then county Democratic chairman, arranged to "promote" Axelrod to county undersheriff, and Orbach ran to succeed him as alderman in 1983. Orbach was opposed by Charlotte Newfeld, a community activist allied with Coleman, and he beat her by 66 votes. In 1984 Orbach announced early for Democratic committeeman, intimidated Axelrod out of the race, and beat Newfeld ally Paul Waterhouse by 1,461 votes -- a veritable landslide by 46th Ward standards.
But Orbach's political ascendancy was short-lived. The city's yawning racial divide was replicated in a class and cultural chasm in the 46th Ward, with the "haves" backing Jane Byrne (in the primary) and Vrdolyak (in the election) for mayor and Orbach for re-election as alderman, and with the "have nots" backing Harold Washington and Coleman ally Shiller for alderman. Washington beat Byrne 9,294-8,598 in the primary, and he beat Vrdolyak 9,944-7,564 in the election, while Orbach got 7,476 votes (41 percent) in the primary, a dismal showing for an incumbent, to Shiller's 6,878, with 3,766 going to Nancy Kaszak (who went on to win election as a state representative in 1992, lose a congressional nomination to Rod Blagojevich in 1996, and lose a congressional nomination to Rahm Emmanuel in 2002). In the runoff, Shiller beat Orbach by 498 votes, getting 9,751 votes to Orbach's 9,253. Her vote was almost identical to Washington's.
After his loss, Orbach chose not to run for re-election as committeeman, moved out of the ward, and got himself appointed as an associate judge.
Shiller subsequently won re-election in 1991, 1995, 1999 and 2003, but she recently made her peace with Daley. Coleman has moved to the 32nd Ward, and the developers have eclipsed the destitute as the dominant force in the ward. The "haves" appear to have won.
Is Orbach a credible alternative to Brown? Given the fact that Brown remains woefully obscure, and given the fact that no scandals have erupted from the clerk's office, running as a "dump Brown" candidate has absolutely no traction. Voters won't back Orbach in order to oust somebody whom they don't know, or somebody who has not been incompetent.
But Brown is very well known and apparently quite popular with her black base. In the 2000 primary Brown, who was then the general auditor for the Chicago Transit Authority, faced three white candidates: Alderman Pat Levar (45th), the slated candidate, who had Daley's endorsement, Alderman Joe Moore (49th), a Lakefront liberal, and Metropolitan Water Reclamation District commissioner Patty Young. Brown got all the key media endorsements, and Levar was backed by all of Daley's white committeemen, but the result was a blow-out: Brown won 28 of the city's 50 wards and 21 of the 30 suburban townships. She got 216,631 votes (48.4 percent) to Levar's 123,309 (27.5 percent), with 56,841 for Young and 50,665 for Moore.Brown crushed Levar in Chicago's three black-majority congressional districts -- the 1st, 2nd and 7th -- by 135,904-23,463, a margin of nearly 6-1. Almost 63 percent of Brown's countywide vote total came from those black-majority areas. The balance of her vote - 80,727 - came from unusual places: She got 10,219 votes in the Northwest Side 5th U.S. House District (to Levar's 25,934), 5,011 in the Southwest Side 3rd District (to Levar's 18,826), 11,118 in the Lakefront 9th District (to Levar's 14,165), and 9,582 in the Hispanic-majority 4th District (to Levar's 15,593). Brown topped Levar 172,892-99,952 in Chicago, and in the suburbs she had 43,739 votes to Levar's 23,357.
Did Brown triumph because she was the superior candidate? Or because Levar was an abysmal candidate? Probably the latter, but it should be noted that the combined Levar-Moore-Young vote of 230,815 did exceed Brown's 216,631. The 2000 primary turnout was only 32 percent, with 447,446 voters casting a ballot in the clerk's primary. Given the hot Democratic primary for U.S. senator in 2004, with four Chicagoans -- Tom Hynes, Barack Obama, Maria Pappas, Blair Hull and Gery Chico -- running, turnout will be in the realm of 600,000-plus. Obama, who is black, will generate a huge black turnout, while Hynes, whose base is on the Southwest Side, will get a large white ethnic vote and Pappas, a Lakefront independent, will run well in her base.So how does Orbach beat Brown? First, he has to announce early and bluff all other potential white candidates out of the race. If Brown has more than one foe, she'll win easily. Second, Orbach has to develop a coherent theme and program for reform, and then sell it. If he's a reformer, he'll be hard to attack as a "Vrdolyaker." And third, he has to make Brown's alleged failure to "reform" the office the issue, and not let her make him the issue.
The last sitting judge to run for countywide office was Ray Berg in 1972, and he lost the primary to State's Attorney Ed Hanrahan. Orbach has a chance to win, probably in a 46th Ward-style squeaker, but only if he keeps it a one-on-one contest with Brown.