January 8, 2003
"QUIRKY" INCUMBENTS FACE TOUGH LAKEFRONT CHALLENGES
ANALYSIS & OPINION BY RUSS STEWART
Many residents of the Northwest and Southwest sides, as well as of the surrounding suburbs, view Chicago's Lakefront in the same way that residents of rural America view New York City: as dense, decadent and hopelessly liberal and Democratic, not to mention crime-ridden, congested and quite irrelevant to their lives.
Those perceptions may not be entirely accurate when it comes to New York City, but this year's aldermanic elections in three of Chicago's six Lakefront wards -- the 42nd, 44th and 46th -- will reinforce those views. An array of eclectic Lakefront issues, such as slave reparations, gay rights, valet parking, the potential war in Iraq, support for President George Bush, horse dung, public urination, incessant construction by "greedy" developers, Section 8 housing and the specter of political "domination" by the Daley Administration, leave residents of outlying wards scratching their heads.
Is not the job of the alderman to provide ward services? In the outlying wards, it is, and aldermen are re-elected or ousted depending on how well they do it. But on the Lakefront, it appears that the alderman's job is to develop a foreign policy, articulate a domestic agenda, be outspokenly liberal on every new and trendy cause, and be the proverbial Dutch Boy at the dike, holding back the real or perceived encroachments of profit-seeking developers and rich Republicans.
Here's a look at key Lakefront contests, moving from the south to the north:
42nd Ward (North Michigan Avenue "Gold Coast," Rush Street, South Lincoln Park, and the Loop north of Congress): The quirky and cantankerous incumbent, Burt Natarus, age 69, has been an alderman since 1971, making him the dean of the City Council. But Natarus, like Rodney Dangerfield, gets no respect. Despite his longevity, Natarus's opinionated outbursts on a myriad of issues get him notice and a few snickers snickers, but not much respect.
Among the targets of alderman's tongue have been police and carriage horses that drop their dung on his precious streets (he wants them to wear diapers); teens with boom box radios, and drivers who play their auto stereos excessively loud; inline roller bladers who zip along Oak Street Beach and on sidewalks; street musicians and panhandlers who lurk on street corners and in subways; valet parking companies who are subcontracted by area restaurants and who create traffic jams outside the business, and then shuttle the cars anywhere and everywhere, often leaving them illegally parked or on private property; landmark status, which affects the ability of property owners to change or renovate (or demolish) their building; changing the name of Soldier Field, for an advertising fee to the city; false city worker sexual harassment claims; dog owners with vicious animals, or those who don't clean up their dog's droppings; and parasailers in Lake Michigan, which he wanted to ban. Natarus also supported resolutions opposing a war with Iraq and supporting slavery reparations and increased AIDS funding. In a council debate, he was quoted as saying that he's "not chicken" on U.S. foreign policy.
The primary concern of the upscale residents of the ward is not that of city taxes or city services, nor is it foreign policy. Instead, it's "don't block my view" of Lake Michigan. They don't mind development, as long as it's not a bigger and taller building on the east side of their building. The 42nd Ward is the city's densest and wealthiest, and it is fast becoming the most Republican.
The ubiquitous Natarus won narrowly in 1995, with 51.3 percent of the vote, but he bounced back in 1999 with 56 percent. In both contests Natarus was pilloried as a "friend" of developers; he claimed that he wanted "balanced" growth, and he ran as a "friend" of Mayor Daley. A Democrat, Natarus is closely allied with veteran ward Democratic Committeeman George Dunne.
Natarus has only a single foe in 2003: Rich Gordon, a recently retired U.S. Army officer, a local businessman and the ward's Republican committeeman since 2000. Al Gore beat Bush 19,127-10,972 in the ward in 2000, and both Jim Ryan and Joe Birkett came within 3,000 votes of carrying the ward in 2002. Natarus is already spreading the dirty word about Gordon -- that he's a Republican. But helping Gordon is the widespread perception that Natarus is a flake. My prediction: Daley will aid Natarus, but Gordon has the money and the base to make the race tight. Natarus will squeak in by fewer than 500 votes, but a Gordon upset is possible.
44th Ward (Lakeview, stretching from Belmont to Lawrence, east of Damen): The ward's gay population, estimated to be about 35 percent of its total population, is perturbed. Longtime Alderman Bernie Hansen (1983-2002) resigned in December for health reasons, and Daley chose restaurateur Tom Tunney to replace him -- making him the city's first openly gay alderman. But another gay candidate, attorney Rick Ingram, also is running, and he filed more nominating petition signatures than Tunney did. Their candidacies will divide the gay vote, ensuring that attorney Dean Maragos, who is not gay, makes the April runoff.
Right now, the pressure is intense on Ingram to withdraw from the race -- from gays, Tunney backers and Daley supporters. In a one-on-one race, Tunney would top Maragos, but if Ingram's campaign focuses on the gay vote, he'll have to go negative on Tunney to get it, and that will estrange a lot of gay and non-gay voters from the appointed incumbent. My prediction: The well financed Maragos will finish with a strong 40 percent of the vote in February, and face Tunney in the April runoff. Unless the turnout is high, Tunney will lose.
46th Ward (Uptown, between roughly Addison and Foster): Longtime Alderman Helen Shiller, first elected in 1987, has long had visions for her ward. In one vision, it would secede from Chicago and America, and become the People's Republic of the 46th Ward, a worker's paradise in which Section 8 housing would be plentiful, rent control would be obligatory, Republicans and developers would be banished to Siberia, and nobody earning more than $30,000 annually would be entitled to live there. Guns, greed and nuclear weapons would be banned. Her other dream would be to build a moat and wall around the ward and mandate that not a single dilapidated building or vacant lot could be altered -- ever.
Unfortunately for Shiller, while poverty may last forever, it does not necessarily stay in the same place forever. Shiller's political base is the ward's have-nots: the renters, seniors, druggies, homeless and prostitutes, who reside in the CHA complex around Lawrence-Winthrop and in the Section 8 apartments east of Broadway, north of Lawrence. Shiller even opposed a crackdown on parking ticket scofflaws, claiming that they were mostly poor people. But, over the past decade, with young and affluent whites moving into the ward on a rising crest of rehabs, teardowns and new construction, coupled with a huge influx of immigrants (primarily Vietnamese, Filipinos, Koreans, Laotians and Cambodians), the anti-Shiller base is almost at parity with Shiller's base.
These new residents want services, not rhetoric. They are unimpressed by Shiller's support for slavery reparations and more AIDS funding and her opposition to a war with Iraq and to Daley's anti-gang loitering law. They want an alderman who will facilitate zoning changes, not block them, and they want an alderman who will focus on providing on-street ward services, not social services.
Shiller won by just 961 votes in 1991, upped that to 1,528 in 1995, but then dropped to 1,250 in 1999. She claims that she supports Daley on "94 percent of all issues," and since 1999 she has supported his budget (after opposing it the previous 12 years). My prediction: Rumors abound that Daley may endorse Shiller (even though she backed Bobby Rush in 1999), just to have some dissenters in the council. Her 2003 foe is Sandra Reed, a teacher and Democratic ward committeeman, who ran against her in 1999. Reed is black, and she is not deemed to be the strongest possible Shiller opponent. But demographics are working against Shiller, and she likely will lose by just under 300 votes this time.
One interesting race, not currently on anybody's radar screen, is in the Far Southwest Side 19th Ward, where former county assessor Tom Hynes is the Democratic committeeman. Tom Dart, an outgoing state representative and a member of Hynes' organization, ran for state treasurer in 2002, losing to Republican Judy Baar Topinka by 404,545 votes -- the only statewide Democrat to lose. A good number of Chicago Democratic committeemen didn't push Dart hard, and in the 19th Ward, Dart ran nearly 3,000 votes behind state Comptroller Dan Hynes -- but almost 5,000 votes ahead of Lisa Madigan, and 4,000 ahead of Rod Blagojevich. Dart shouldn't be annoyed; Tom Hynes "cut" Madigan and Blagojevich in his ward, not Dart. Nevertheless, attorney John Somerville, a close ally of Dart, filed more than 7,500 petition signatures to run for alderman against incumbent Virginia Rugai, Hynes' choice.
Is Dart moving to take out Tom Hynes for committeeman in 2004? And, if so, are Mike Madigan and the new governor behind him? Pressure is on Somerville to withdraw. If he stays in, and wins or comes close, Hynes is in trouble.