November 13, 2002
BLAGOJEVICH'S "AWESOME" CHICAGO VOTE KEY TO WIN
ANALYSIS & OPINION BY RUSS STEWART
Can you say "President Blagojevich"?
Democrat Rod Blagojevich is not yet ensconced as Illinois governor, but his backers, including those close to his father-in-law, 33rd Ward Alderman Dick Mell, are already plotting a political trajectory in which Blagojevich gets re-elected as governor in 2006 and then becomes the Democrats' presidential candidate in 2008.
But before Blagojevich ascends into the political stratosphere and develops a fat ego and national aspirations, he must be cognizant of two realities: First, his victory over Republican Jim Ryan was not staggering, and his margin was far less than most politicians expected -- just 235,375 votes, according to unofficial totals. Despite polls showing a blowout, Blagojevich didn't win by much, which means his base of support could quickly crumble if he is an inept, or a tax-hiking, governor.
And second, Illinois faces a dire fiscal predicament, with a projected $2.5 billion budget shortfall in the Fiscal Year 2004. And that means Blagojevich must either raise taxes substantially or cut spending dramatically. Either option is fraught with political peril. He has two choices: Either he adopts a Band-Aid approach, raising every possible state fee except the income tax, and hopes that the economy roars back to revenue-surplus prosperity by 2005, or he adopts the Dick Ogilvie I've-got-the-guts-to-raise-taxes-because-I-must-provide-services approach, which will win him plaudits from the media and endear him to liberal Democats nationwide, but which could endanger his re-election. It's a tough choice, but governing like a fiscally conservative Republican is not the route to snaring a Democratic presidential nomination.
Blagojevich's Nov. 5 victory can be encapsulated as follows: A monstrous vote in Chicago, coupled with a surprising vote Downstate, equals a comfortable win. The Democrat won big in his Chicago base, and Ryan didn't checkmate him in his Collar County base or Downstate. Statewide, Blagojevich beat Ryan by a surprisingly narrow 52-48 percent margin. In fact, Blagojevich's total vote of 1,820,059 was 225,868 more than Democrat Glenn Poshard's 1998 vote of 1,594,191, and Jim Ryan's total of 1,584,684 was 129,410 less than George Ryan's 1998 vote of 1,714,094. Ryan triumphed by 119,903 votes in 1998. That means that the $23 million raised and spent by Blagojevich, when coupled with George Ryan's perceived culpability in the licenses-for-bribes scandal, moved a grand total of 350,000 votes. But victory, as they say, has a thousand mothers, and nobody really cares from whence it comes.
In Chicago, Blagojevich's home base, the Democrat beat Ryan 527,000-125,269, a margin of 401,731 votes and an 80.7 percent share. That was a phenomenal showing, and it easily eclipsed Poshard's 1998 Chicago margin of 449,603-211,366 (68.1 percent) over George Ryan. The citywide turnout was almost identical -- 660,969 in 1998 to 652,269 in 2002 -- but in 2002 Blagojevich racked up 77,397 votes more than Poshard, and Jim Ryan had 86,097 fewer votes than George Ryan. In 2000, Al Gore got 769,859 votes in Chicago and beat George Bush by 604,929 votes -- an equally phenomenal 80.4 percent share. Bush had 164,930 votes in Chicago, which was about 40,000 more than Jim Ryan, but Blagojevich had 250,000 fewer votes than Gore did, which is attributable to a lower turnout in the black wards. It is clear that black Democratic committeemen did as little for Blagojevich as they did for Poshard.
Quite surprisingly, Blagojevich won the Cook County suburbs by 50,415 votes, giving him a countywide margin of 452,146 votes (and a share of 67.2 percent), far more than Poshard's 1998 margin of 128,264 (54.9 percent). The liberal Democrats who renounced the pro-life, pro-gun rights Poshard in 1998 came home to Blagojevich in 2002. In 2000, with a mammoth black turnout, Al Gore won the county by 746,005 votes (68.9 percent); still, in 2002, Blagojevich won Cook County by almost 300,000 fewer votes than Gore did.
The general rule of thumb in Illinois politics is that a Republican can win statewide only if he (1) keeps the Democrat under 400,000 votes in Cook County, (2) wins suburban DuPage, Lake, McHenry, Kendall, Kane and Will counties by more than 200,000 votes, and (3) wins the remaining 95 Downstate counties by more than 200,000 votes. Peter Fitzgerald came close to doing exactly that in 1998: He lost CookCounty by 394,161 votes, but he won the "suburban ring" by 169,538 and Downstate by 323,168, on the way to a statewide win of 98,545 votes.
In 2002, in part because of his lackluster campaign and in part because of the governor's unpopularity, it was thumbs down on Jim Ryan in his suburban base. Ryan is from DuPage County; he won his county by 79,651 votes, which was well below George Ryan's margin of 104,168 votes in 1998. In the six supposedly Republican-leaning suburban ring counties, Ryan won by a margin of 152,656 votes; that's almost 100,000 fewer votes than George Ryan's margin of 244,578 in the "rings" in 1998. Why would a liberal Chicagoan (Blagojevich) do so much better in the those counties than a conservative Downstater (Poshard)? Obviously, a lot of past Republican voters didn't want a future Republican governor.
But Jim Ryan's embarrassing shortfall in the "rings" paled in comparison to his catastrophe Downstate. Running against black Chicago Democrat Carol Moseley-Braun in 1998, Fitzgerald carried Downstate by 323,168 votes; running against conservative Downstater Poshard, George Ryan, who is from from Kankakee, lost Downstate by 3,589 votes. This year Jim Ryan topped Blagojevich Downstate by just 64,115 votes, with the Democrat winning 33 of 95 Downstate counties; by comparison, Moseley-Braun won four Downstate counties in 1998.
Blagojevich, with help from Mell and Democratic members of the Illinois congressional delegation, lined up patronage-hungry Downstate county chairmen, and they cranked out a sizable Blagojevich vote in the traditionally Democratic area around East Saint Louis, the adjacent rural areas, and in such economically depressed cities as Decatur, Rock Island, Moline and Rockford. For Ryan, such a result is inexcusable but explainable: George Ryan did nothing to help Jim Ryan, even though he could have pressured many Downstate county Republican chairmen to do so. And Jim Ryan, despite 8 years as state attorney general, never bothered to build a personal political organization among Downstaters.
The general Democatic trend was replicated in the Lisa Madigan-Joe Birkett race for attorney general. Like Blagojevich, Madigan won big in Chicago (by 359,910 votes, about 40,000 fewer than Blagojevich), and she won the Cook County suburbs (by 19,611 votes, about 30,000 fewer than Blagojevich). Madigan lost the "suburban ring" counties by 217,361 votes, about 65,000 more than Blagojevich, and she lost Downstate by 88,705, about 24,000 more than Blagojevich.
Therefore, it can be concluded that the Democrats' victories, particularly Downstate, were fueled more by anti-Republican (and anti-George Ryan) sentiment than by pro-Blagojevich and pro-Madigan inclinations. Blagojevich is an indefatigable and charismatic politician, but the fact that Jim Ryan closed fast and came close demonstrates that Blagojevich's superficial and platitudinous campaign never captured the electorate's fancy. He takes office with no mandate and few voter expectations.
But winning is what matters, and Blagojevich, in the span of 10 years, has gone from an obscure Wicker Park lawyer (who happened to marry Mell's daughter) to an obscure Wicker park state representative (in 1992), then on to be an obscure (on the national scene) U.S. representative (in 1996), and then on to win the 2002 Democratic primary for governor and the governorship over Ryan. He will now be seen nationally, at least at first, as the obscure Illinois governor with the hard-to-pronounce name.
But, according to sources close to Mell, there is a plan: Since 1960, the Republicans have won six presidential elections and the Democrats have won five. Voters seem to want a rotation of national partisan power. If President George Bush wins a second term in 2004, then 2008 could be a year when a Democrat rotates in, and Blagojevich, who would be age 51 in 2008, has as good a chance as any Democrat of winning, provided he wins re-election as governor in 2006.
Remember this: Mike Dukakis (in 1988) and Bill Clinton (in 1992) were obscure governors when they began their bids for the White House. And, in terms of sheer campaigning ability, Blagojevich is better than Dukakis and may one day approach Clinton. However, Blagojevich must demonstrate some governing ability for the next 4 years. If he fails to do so, then all else is just idle speculation.