October 30, 2002
DAMPENED BLACK TURNOUT HAS DEMOCRATS ANXIOUS
Black voter rage means a surging black turnout. In any partisan election, over 95 percent of blacks vote Democratic. Of the state’s 7.1 million registered voters, roughly 950,000 are black. If black turnout is 70 percent, that’s at least 625,000 Democratic votes; if turnout drops to 50 percent, that’s 450,000 Democratic votes – a 175,000-vote falloff. A 50 percent black turnout is likely. The Democrat will win by 245,000 votes. In 1998, Democrat Miriam Santos got 265,627 votes in the black wards and 84,510 in the black townships, beating Jim Ryan in Chicago 269,614, but losing the suburbs by 214,101. Full Article...
October 23, 2002
"BUYER'S REMORSE" BLOCKS BLAGOJEVICH BLOWOUT
Democrat Rod Blagojevich will win. First, Blagojevich is not George Ryan. Second, Blagojevich is not a Republican. Blagojevich’s electability exceeds his credibility. Poshard won Chicago by just 238,237 votes (449,603-211,366) over Ryan. Could the mayor shave 100,000 votes off Blagojevich? That means Blagojevich will win the Cook County suburbs by 95,000. In 1998, Ryan won 59 counties Downstate, to Poshard’s 42; Ryan won the six collar counties (DuPage, Lake, Kendall, Kane, McHenry and Will) by 244,578, but Poshard won Downstate by 3,589 votes. My prediction? Full Article...
October 16, 2002
STATE TRENDS BOOST MADIGAN IN AG RACE
In 1994, for example, the big-spending Democrat Al Hofeld lost to Jim Ryan by 280,681 votes, while Edgar was winning by 914,468 – a swing of over 600,000 votes; in 1982, Democrat Neil Hartigan won for AG by 544,689 votes, while Adlai Stevenson lost for governor by 5,074 – a swing of over 500,000 votes. Gore won Chicago by 604,929 votes. My prediction: Madigan will win in her Cook County base by around 500,000 votes. Madigan will win statewide by 45,000 votes – amassing about 500,000 votes less than Blagojevich. Full Article...
October 9, 2002
SCREWY LOCAL RACES MERIT MEDIA COVERAGE
After his defeat, Wojcik publicly ruminated about running in the 38th Ward against incumbent Tom Allen. Wojcik will not run for alderman against Allen. If Bugielski wins, that means both the 10th District state senator (Jim DeLeo) and the 20th District state representative (Bugielski) come out of the 36th Ward Democratic Organization, of which Banks is the committeeman. Capparelli claims to have workers in all 67 of his ward’s precincts. Malatesta was supposed to push Blagojevich-Bugielski-Martwick. Will Banks cut Martwick or Madigan in his ward? If Silvestri gets 45 percent in Banks’ ward, then he wins districtwide. Full Article...
October 2, 2002
"OFF RADAR SCREEN" RACES MERIT ATTENTION
Those major races on the 2002 Illinois radar screen include several statewide contests (governor, attorney general, and treasurer), as well as the Northwest Side contests for Cook County Commissioner in the 9th District (incumbent Republican Pete Silvestri versus Democrat Rob Martwick) and for state representative in the 20th District (incumbent Republican Mike McAuliffe versus incumbent Democrat Bob Bugielski). U.S. Senator: Incumbent Democrat Dick Durbin won his first term in 1996 by a hefty 655,204-vote margin (56.1 percent), more because of the electoral unacceptability of his foe, Republican Al Salvi, than because of his own appeal. Durbin, age 57, if re-elected in November over Republican Jim Durkin, is on track to become part of the U.S. Senate’s Democratic leadership. Full Article...
Previous Articles