July 24, 2002
CAN JIM RYAN STILL WIN

ANALYSIS & OPINION BY RUSS STEWART

It ain’t over until it’s over. And although the news media, the polls, and most Democratic politicians have already declared Democrat Rod Blagojevich to be Illinois’ next governor, Republican Jim Ryan still has a chance to win.

To do so, and to exhume his floundering campaign from its premature burial, Ryan has to throw his chronic caution to the wind, and adopt a new mindset. Here’s what he must do:

First, he must get back to what worked. Voters don’t like the grim, dour, indecisive Ryan that they see in the media. Ryan has been state attorney general for 8 years, and has run statewide three times. He is well-known, administered his office competently, and was thought to be popular. He has fought cancer, and suffered family tragedy when his daughter died of a mysterious illness. He must refresh voters’ recollection of his personal history and character.

Ryan ran for attorney general in 1990 against Roland Burris, and lost by just 95,214 votes (48.5 percent); he came back in 1994, and beat Democrat Al Hofeld by 280,681 votes (53.6 percent). And he won re-election in 1998 by 783,802 votes (60.9 percent) over Chicago city Treasurer Miriam Santos. He has compiled a respectable record in office and, had he sought another term, would surely have won. But the nasty Republican campaign for governor sullied Ryan’s reputation and created an image of him as a grim and truculent while male who’s adamantly anti-abortion, and who somehow failed to get tough on George Ryan while he was Secretary of State. That image persists…and it makes him unelectable.

Ryan needs some TV ads in which his wife, and people like Jim Edgar and Jim Thompson, testify as to his “courage” and character. He must redefine himself, and he must do it quickly.

Second, he must get an attitude and get mad. Ryan has spent his entire adult life aspiring to the job he now seeks. He spent 10 years as DuPage County State’s Attorney, and has been attorney general since 1994. At age 56, this is his first and last chance to be governor – and it’s slipping away. Does he want to lose with caution and dignity, and fade into political oblivion? If so, he need just keep running his insipid campaign. Or will he do what it takes to win? Ryan fought cancer, and, to date, won. Will he fight equally as hard to be governor?

Third, he has to get focused on the future. The upcoming election is about choosing Illinois’ next governor; it is not a referendum on Illinois’ current governor. The pervasive voter revulsion and disgust with George Ryan gives Blagojevich a ready-made issue: He is the candidate of change, while Ryan is yet another insider Republican. If George Ryan gets indicted before November, then Jim Ryan is doomed. Otherwise, Jim Ryan must persuade voters that the choice is not one of change, but rather of experience and competence, and that he has both, while Blagojevich has neither.

Fourth, he has to get nasty, and start to rough up Rod. The most obvious tack is to exploit the current state fiscal crisis, in which state expenditures exceed revenues by $1.3 billion. With the economic recovery still tentative, the next governor will confront an even more dire fiscal situation, and Ryan must pound home the point that if Blagojevich wins, and if the Democrats control both the Illinois House and Illinois Senate, an orgy of spending will ensue, and the state’s income and sales taxes will be hiked. Ryan must pledge not to raise taxes, and must demand that Blagojevich do likewise. The Democrat, of course, will equivocate, and try to avoid taking a stance (which, it must be acknowledged, he is quite adept at doing). Ryan must “take the pledge” not to raise income or sales taxes if he’s governor, and, if Blagojevich doesn’t, then Ryan has a huge opening.

Ryan must hammer home the point that if Democrats control state government, then every Democratic constituency – the teachers’ unions, Labor, the state bureaucracy, minorities, liberals, Chicago politicians – will be clamoring for increased funding for their pet projects. The legislature will pass their bills, and Blagojevich won’t veto them. That means more spending, supported by higher taxes.

Another tack is ridicule. Blagojevich is a smiling and bouncy politician, and is a perpetual campaign machine. But he has never held an administrative or executive office. Ryan can produce TV ads that use so-called “man (or woman) on the street” interviews with real citizens, who will express their incredulity at Blagojevich’s candidacy. Their thrust: “Blagojevich? As governor? You’re kidding? He hasn’t a clue” Or: “He’s just not qualified.” Or: “He’d raise my taxes.” Or: “He’s just another politician, just like George Ryan. I wouldn’t trust him as governor.” These ads would become a major news story, so the “on street” people would have to be real, not actors

Since media ads have now evolved to the point where they become media stories, this could work. If Ryan begins attacking Blagojevich’s competency to be governor, then Blagojevich will have to go on the defensive and explain why he is competent. And, with six years in Washington as a congressman, and four years as a state representative, Blagojevich’s credentials are puny compared to Ryan’s.

An alternative approach would be to have somebody dressed in a clown suit, or made up like the “Joker” in Batman, who giggles convulsively when asked what he thinks of Blagojevich as governor. Ridicule gets attention, and usually works.

Another tack is to lambast Blagojevich as either a “Washington politician” who hasn’t the necessary knowledge to run Illinois, or as a “Chicago politician” who hasn’t the necessary knowledge to address state issues outside of Chicago. To date, when Ryan has attempted to attack Blagojevich’s liberal congressional voting record, it’s been counter-productive: The ad becomes a media story, and when Ryan raps his foe’s support for abortion rights and gay rights, it solidifies Blagojevich’s base as much as it does Ryan’s.

And then there’s Blagojevich’s congressional record, which is remarkable for its brevity. One Chicago political columnist called it “uninspired.”  When Blagojevich leaves Washington after his current term expires, he won’t be missed, since he did so little when he was there. Ryan must ridicule Blagojevich as a legislator who wasn’t even competent enough to legislate.

And fifth, Ryan must get decisive, and develop a coherent theme and a rationale for voters to enbrace his candidacy. Unfortunately, when voters are displeased with their current officeholders, the argument that “experience” is more important than “change” rarely works. A classic example was the 1960 presidential election, when then-Vice President Richard Nixon’s undisputed “experience” was insufficient to derail then-Senator John Kennedy’s theme of “change.” The exception , of course, is when that “change” is negatively defined.

Blagojevich’s position is that he is not George Ryan, that he is not a Republican, and that has no connection to the Springfield establishment and the Secretary of State scandals. That’s a powerful argument. Ryan’s position, basically, is that he is not George, and that he is better qualified to be governor. Right now, the Ryan stance is the losing stance.

However, Ryan could turn his serious, taciturn, uncharismatic persona into an asset. Jim Edgar, for example, had a personality with as much pizzazz as a bowl of peas, but he was wildly popular, as he looked like a governor, and carefully positioned himself on key issues (like being pro-choice on abortion). Ryan must go up with TV ads that acknowledge that he is charisma-challenged, and argue that Illinois’ “serious” problems demand a “serious” governor. He could then show videotapes of the ever-smiling Blagojevich, and conclude with the punchline that Illinois’s problems are not a laughing matter, or are nothing to smile about.

Blagojevich has over $7 million in his campaign account, and will unleash an avalanche of TV ads during September and October. Ryan must be prepared to respond to and ridicule those ads. In short, Ryan must go on the offense, and make the election a referendum on Blagojevich, not on George Ryan, and give voters plenty of reasons not to vote for Blagojevich.

It’s an ancient maxim in any political contest that the trailing candidate, to win, must go negative on the leading candidate, and persuade voters to vote against the frontrunner. Ryan must demonstrate that Blagojevich is not competent to be governor, and that means a nasty, negative campaign. Does Ryan have the guts to do it?

Recent polls put Blagojevich ahead by 10-12 points, but none of them have Blagojevich over the 50 percent mark. But, for somebody as well-known as Jim Ryan to be hovering under 40 percent is, for him, frightening. About 15-20 percent of Illinois’ voters are as yet undecided in the governor’s race, and Ryan, to win, needs to get 80 percent of those voters to opt for him. That’s a nearly impossible situation.

My early prediction: Blagojevich is on track for a smashing victory, upwards of 300,000 votes. He need not be specific on issues. He need only demonstrate that he’s young (age 46), personable, likeable, and energetic – characteristics lacking in both George Ryan and Jim Ryan. His campaign ads will make all kinds of appealing promises, but he will astutely avoid any mention of a tax hike.

And Jim Ryan, afraid that he’ll be tagged as mean and nasty, in addition to dour and indecisive, won’t do what it takes to beat him.