June 12, 2002
"ROADBLOCK STRATEGY" IS DALEY GOAL FOR 2003 RACE

ANALYSIS & OPINION BY RUSS STEWART

By next May, when Mayor Rich Daley’s current term expires, a Daley will have been Chicago’s mayor for 35 of the previous 48 years. That’s a dynasty unequalled in any major U.S. city.

At age 60, Daley is indisputably at the peak of his form, is still energized and exhilarated by his job, and is, arguably, at the peak of his popularity. Adhering to the ancient political maxim that no wise incumbent ever publicly grooms a successor, since that putative replacement grows ever more restive waiting to assume power, Daley has taken that adage to a higher level: He’s not only not grooming a successor, but he’s also putting major roadblocks in the path of would-be successors.

Chicagoans clearly remember the chaos and tumult that followed the death of Mayor Richard J. Daley in 1976, at age 74. Daley the Elder did not designate a successor, and Daley the Younger had to wait 13 years to assume his father’s mantle. He had to bear the ignominy of a defeat in 1983 in his quest for the job, winning it in 1989 only because of the death of Harold Washington in 1987. And now it’s a potential déjà vu, because Richard M. does not have a designated or obvious successor.

Mayor Daley hasn’t formally announced his candidacy for a fourth full term, but he has disclosed his “slate” for the February, 2003 municipal elections:  Himself for mayor; appointed city Treasurer Judy Rice for city clerk; and city Transportation Commissioner Miguel d’Escoto for city treasurer.

Having been embarrassed and infuriated by the disloyalty and palpable hostility of former city Treasurer Miriam Santos, whom he appointed to the job in 1989, Daley venerates loyalty above all else among city officials, except perhaps competence.

Rice, who is black, is the daughter of a former city police superintendent; she has worked for Daley in various capacities for over 20 years, and her loyalty is demonstrated by the fact that she is switching jobs, and running for city clerk against incumbent Jim Laski. That sets up a nasty primary.

D’Escoto, whose father was born in Nicaragua and is a well-connected Democratic fundraiser, is close to Daley’s top Hispanic operative and political strategist, Victor Reyes. If he wins the treasurer’s job, he won’t get a Santos-like fat head; he’ll understand that he’s there because Daley and Daley’s organization put him there.

In fact, Daley’s so-called 2003 “Rainbow Ticket” – a white, black, and Hispanic – is really more like a Rainbow Kite, with Daley being the kite and providing the lift, and Rice and d’Escoto being the tails that are along for the ride.

Both Rice and d’Escoto were carefully chosen by the mayor because, if elected, they will effectively serve as roadblocks to the two most formidable future Chicago mayoral contenders: Cook County Circuit Court Clerk Dorothy Brown, who is black, and U.S. Representative Luis Gutierrez (D-4), the city’s  leading Hispanic politician. If Daley ran again in 2007, or retired that year and anointed a white successor, then either (or both) Rice or d’Escoto could be instructed to run for mayor, and each would effectively dilute and divide the black and Hispanic vote, respectively, that Brown and Gutierrez would garner. That white candidate could be Daley’s brother, Cook County Commissioner John Daley,  his other brother, Bill Daley, or Cook County State’s Attorney Dick Devine – or perhaps even former city school CEO Paul Vallas, who is currently on the outs with Daley. A white independent, County Clerk David Orr, could also run. Or Daley could anoint Rice or d’Escoto as his successor.

And Rice, if elected in 2003, would serve the additional purpose of roadblocking and eliminating from the city scene the only non-Daley (and sometimes anti-Daley) white who could plausibly succeed Daley – Laski, who has been clerk since 1995. Laski is a former 23rd ward alderman and erstwhile protégé of U.S. Representative Bill Lipinski (D-3), a longtime Daley ally. But Laski has been, as they say in City Hall, a “disruptive force”; that means he has not been the mayor’s toady, and that has infuriated the mayor, who expects his underlings to do what they are told.

The 2000 census pegged Chicago’s population at 2,896,016, of which 31.3 percent were white, 26 percent Hispanic, 36.4 percent black, 4.3 percent Asian, and 2 percent classified as “other.” However, among registered voters, whites comprise nearly 45 percent, blacks 43 percent, Asians two percent, and Hispanics the remaining ten percent (less than 150,000 voters). Of the Hispanics, the bulk are of Mexican heritage (over 70 percent), and over half of them are non-citizens; roughly 15 percent are Puerto Rican, just over two percent are Cuban, and the remaining 13 percent is divided as follows: two-thirds are Hispanics of Central American descent, and one-third are Hispanics of South American descent.

The mayor’s selection of Rice and d’Escoto was politically astute, for two reasons:

First, Laski could have beat a Hispanic in 2003, since Hispanic turnout is notoriously low. But, by shifting Rice into the clerk’s race, Daley insures that all the city’s black ward committeemen will work mightily for Rice. And, in the white wards, Daley’s committeemen will bring in a respectable vote for Rice. The early outlook: After Daley puts the squeeze on his aldermen and committeemen, Laski will be toast.

And second, by choosing d’Escoto, Daley cleverly avoids the Hispanic rivalry between Puerto Ricans and Mexican-Americans. D’Escoto is of Central-American Hispanic descent, which means that the other Hispanics have no reason to resent him, and will have every reason to support him.

Laski, the city’s highest-ranking official of Polish-American ancestry, can certainly make ethnicity an issue in 2003. Other than Lipinski, there are few other prominent Polish politicians. Laski claims that 46 of 50 ward committeemen support him, which is ludicrous. The black committeemen will back Rice, and Daley will make sure that the white and Hispanic committeemen do likewise. When the mayor wants to win, he strong-arms his minions. For 2003, the Daley-Rice-d’Escoto slate will be the uppermost focus of every Democratic ward committeemen.  They will deliver.

The bottom line: The Great Black Hope for 2003 (or later) is U.S. Representative Jesse Jackson Jr. (D-2); but he is not going to run against Daley, and will wait until the job opens. Or he could run for U.S. Senator in 2004. Black U.S. Representatives Bobby Rush (D-1) and Danny Davis (D-7) have already run for mayor and lost, as have Roland Burris and Gene Pincham. Pincham got 26 percent against Daley in the 1991 election, and Davis 32 percent in the 1991 primary; Burris got 37 percent in the 1995 election; and Rush got 28 percent in the 1999 election. None will ever be a viable mayoral contender.

State Senator Barack Obama (D-13) seems to be the most ambitious among the black state legislators; he’s eager to run for U.S. Senator in 2004, and a 2003 mayoral run would give him valuable visibility – but only if he ran respectably. If he got pulverized by Daley, winning less than 30 percent, then his 2004 statewide hopes would be extinguished.

If Laski wants to thwart the 2003 Daley Juggernaut, he will need for there to be a credible black mayoral contender, and he will need to have a black opponent for d’Escoto – somebody prominent, such as a sitting alderman or state legislator. He will have to characterize Rice as a Daley stooge, and himself as a fighter who maintains checks-and-balances in Chicago government.

My prediction: If Daley runs again in 2003, there is no doubt that he will win overwhelmingly. Chicagoans are generally satisfied with the state of their city, and with his stewardship. In fact, many whites – plus investors and developers --fear a Chicago without Rich Daley at the helm.

There is little doubt that Daley’s next term (2003-2007) will be his last, so the jockeying will begin in 2003 for the succession. Jesse Jackson Jr. will rank as a major early contender. If the mayor retires in 2007, and backs Gutierrez or d’Escoto to succeed him, or his brother or Devine, then a white-Hispanic coalition would defeat Jackson. Neither whites nor Hispanics want a black mayor, and they would back whoever made the runoff against Jackson.

Chicago politics, after the departure of Daley the Second, will be as tumultuous as after the death of Daley the First.